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系統識別號 U0026-0812200915245712
論文名稱(中文) 細胞傳輸模型之實證研究
論文名稱(英文) The Validation of the Cell Transmission Model
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 交通管理學系碩博士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Transportation & Communication Management Science
學年度 97
學期 2
出版年 98
研究生(中文) 陳俊佑
研究生(英文) Chen-You Chen
學號 r5696125
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 105頁
口試委員 口試委員-邱裕鈞
指導教授-胡大瀛
召集委員-董啟崇
口試委員-黃國平
中文關鍵字 細胞傳輸模型  DynaTAIWAN  車輛偵測器  MATLAB 
英文關鍵字 Cell Transmission Model  DynaTAIWAN  MATLAB  Vehicle Detectors 
學科別分類
中文摘要 細胞傳輸模型(Cell Transmission Model, CTM)屬於車流理論之中觀車流模式,此模型的特色為將道路以單位時間內自由車流速度所行駛之距離,劃分為相同長度、均質的區塊,稱之為細胞;並藉由各細胞的容量以控制車輛在道路中的流動情形。
目前細胞傳輸模型相關研究大多為國外學者針對高速公路車流進行匝道儀控策略相關之研究,國內關於細胞傳輸模型相關研究較為稀少,且並未利用真實流量資料進行驗證;本研究以MATLAB開發細胞傳輸模型模擬程式,同時利用動態交通指派軟體DynaTAIWAN產生模擬所需之輸入資料(車輛產生率、交叉路口轉向比),並選定高雄市三民區路網(包含九如二路及民族路共5個交叉路口,5組號誌)作為實證研究之對象,利用路網中五組由高雄市政府交通局所佈設之車輛偵測器(Vehicle Detectors, VD),所蒐集之民國98年1月份起9個禮拜四早上7點至9點之真實流量資料作為比對之依據。
研究中採用MAPE及RMSE作為評估準則;扣除VD蒐集之1月29日(大年初四)之流量異常較少外,其餘8個禮拜四中各VD比對之MAPE值大多介於20%至50%,屬於合理接近良好之預測,RMSE值則皆小於50%;若以個別日期觀察,則3月5日及3月12日之各VD流量比對之MAPE值皆小於30%,具有最佳之表現,結果均顯示出細胞傳輸模型具有合理解釋國內市區號誌化路網流量之能力。
英文摘要 The Flow Theory can be divided into three categories- macroscopic, mesoscopic and microscopic model. The Cell Transmission Model (CTM) in this study can be attributed to the mesoscopic model. The roads in the CTM are divided equally into consecutive sections by the distance a car runs with free flow speed at unit time. CTM defines the cell as equal length section or homogeneous section of the roads. Controlling the flow on the roads by means of capacities set for the cell is the main feasure of CTM.
Most studies related to CTM were conducted abroad and aimed on the flow of free way. On the contrary, the similar studies related to CTM conducted domestically are quite few, not to mention the study aimed on the flow of signalized network in the urban area and using real time flow data for validation.
This research attempts to conduct a CTM simulation program using MATLAB. The related information such as car generation rate and split ratio, which simulation needed as input data are generated by the dynamic traffic assignment software- DynaTAIWAN. The SanMing Section Network of Kaohsiung City (consists of five intersections and five sets of signals along Jiuru second Road and Minzu road) is selected as target sample for validation. All the comparisons of validation are on the basis of the data, realistic flow volume at the intervals of 7 AM to 9 AM of 9 consecutive Thursday starting from January 2009, collected by the Vehicle Detectors (VD) installed in the SanMing Section Network by the Municipal Transportation Bureau of Kaohsiung City.
Both MAPE, RMSE are chosen to be the measure criteria of the study. Neglecting the volume data collected on January 29th, the fourth day of Chinese Lunar New Year, which is abnormally low, most comparisons of validation, for the VD data from 8 out of 9 sample Thursdays, are between 20% and 50% based on MAPE and less than 50% based on RMSE, and perform a reasonable or almost excellent forecast. Furthermore, the excellent performance showed on March 5th and March 12th, the comparisons of validation of both days’ VD data are less than 30% based on MAPE. The outcomes resulted from both criteria show that CTM equals to reason on the volume of signalized network in the urban area of Taiwan.
論文目次 摘要 I
Abstract II
誌 謝 III
目 錄 IV
圖目錄 VI
表目錄 VIII
第一章 緒論 - 1 -
1.1 研究背景與動機 - 1 -
1.2 研究目的 - 2 -
1.3 研究流程 - 2 -
1.4 章節安排 - 5 -
第二章 文獻回顧 - 7 -
2.1 車流理論 - 7 -
2.1.1 巨觀車流理論 - 7 -
2.1.2 微觀車流理論 - 11 -
2.1.3 中觀車流理論 - 13 -
2.1.4 混合車流 - 13 -
2.2 細胞傳輸模型相關研究與應用 - 15 -
2.2.1 理論部份 - 15 -
2.2.2 應用部份 - 18 -
2.2.3 優缺點分析 - 23 -
2.3 車流模擬 - 25 -
2.4常見之車流模擬軟體 - 26 -
2.5路段偵測器資料來源 - 31 -
2.6 本章小結 - 31 -
第三章 研究架構與模型建構- 34 -
3.1 研究架構 - 34 -
3.2 細胞傳輸模型簡介 - 38 -
3.2.1 基礎模式 - 38 -
3.2.2 一般路段與路段分流/匯流模式 - 40 -
3.2.3 交叉路口模式 - 43 -
3.3 本章小結 - 45 -
第四章 程式建構與資料蒐集- 46 -
4.1 路網規劃與設計 - 46 -
4.2 資料蒐集 - 49 -
4.2.1 路段偵測器資料 - 49 -
4.2.2 號誌時相資料 - 52 -
4.2.3 路段資料 - 54 -
4.2.4 交叉路口轉向比 - 55 -
4.3 程式建構 - 58 -
4.3.1 程式初始化 - 59 -
4.3.2 交叉路口模式 - 60 -
4.3.3 車輛產生 - 61 -
4.3.4 號誌設計 - 62 -
4.4 實驗設計 - 63 -
4.5 本章小結 - 64 -
第五章 實證研究 - 65 -
5.1 評估指標 - 65 -
5.2 數值分析 - 66 -
5.2.1 VD資料說明 - 67 -
5.2.2 細胞傳輸模型模擬流量與VD偵測流量比較結果 - 75 -
5.3 混合車流實驗 - 94 -
5.4 本章小結 - 97 -
第六章 結論與建議 - 98 -
6.1 結論 - 98 -
6.2 建議 - 99 -
參考文獻 - 101 -
中文部份 - 101 -
英文部份: - 102 -
自述 - 105 -
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