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系統識別號 U0026-0812200915184605
論文名稱(中文) 技術分析與週期循環應用於電信產業
論文名稱(英文) An Application of the Technical Strategy Analysis with Business Cycle in Telecommunication Industry
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 電信管理研究所
系所名稱(英) Institute of Telecommunications and Management
學年度 97
學期 2
出版年 98
研究生(中文) 張哲維
研究生(英文) Che-wei Chang
電子信箱 r9696101@mail.ncku.edu.tw
學號 r9696101
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
論文頁數 37頁
口試委員 指導教授-張瀞之
口試委員-廖俊雄
口試委員-韓子健
中文關鍵字 電信產業  平滑異同平均線  週期  技術分析 
英文關鍵字 Business cycle  MACD  Telecommunications industry  Technical strategy analysis 
學科別分類
中文摘要 電信產業一直以來對於國家競爭力之提升以及其他產業之助益都是不可言喻的,並且經過了電信三法之推動,使得電信自由化,也讓一般投資人能在股票市場中以其當成投資標的,但也因為電信市場之開放,使得競爭變得相當激烈,也增加了投資者之風險。因此本研究利用技術分析以及週期這兩種在股票市場及財金市場相當成熟之方法進行投資模型之建立,進而提供投資人更穩健之投資決策。
本研究假設投資者在股票市場中不進行投機行為,並且持有其股票需達六個月以上,在投資過程中會進行增量購買及減量賣出股票之動作。在股票市場中有許多成熟之技術分析工具,如:移動平移法、平滑異同平均線(MACD)、相對強弱指標…等,透過文獻回顧得知平滑異同平均線是較新也是較進階之技術方法,因此本研究採用MACD建立投資模型。因技術分析皆有盲點,因此本研究利用週期分析以修正此缺點,盡量求得投資資訊之更可靠。本研究將技術分析工具與週期比較並提供投資之時點,最後佐以實證並計算報酬率,此研究可提供投資者較可靠之投資資訊決策。
英文摘要 The telecommunications industry has been a propeller for boosting a nation’s competence and benefits other industries. However, the deregulation which admits even more telecom companies in the market disadvantages the service providers owing to the increasingly relentless competitions. Therefore, the risk of investing in the telecom stocks would rise accordingly. Thus, this research creates an investing model accompanied by technical strategy analysis and business cycle derived from stock market and financial market, to provide investors advices on stable trades.
The research assumption holds that speculation regulating is nonexistent and the time period of stock holding must be over six months, yet the volume of stock holding. Numerous technical strategic analysis tools in the stock market have been developed over time, e.g., Moving Average (MA), Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI). Since MACD is noted as a reliable tool for most of the previous researches, this study adopted the MACD in our investing model. However, the false signals originating in MACD could affect technical analysis erratically; therefore, business cycle is applied as a supplement for more reliable investing information. This study combines the technical analysis tool and business cycle tool for informing investors the appropriate timings for trade decisions. With the proven stable returns, as illustrated in the empirical analysis results, this research is verified to be a great advancement in investors’ decision-making strategy.
論文目次 Chapter One Introduction ............................................................................................................ 1
1.1 Research Background and Motivation ..................................................................................... 1
1.2 Research Purpose ...................................................................................................................... 3
1.3 Research Flow Path .................................................................................................................. 4
Chapter Two Literature Review ................................................................................................... 5
2.1 Technical Strategic Analysis .................................................................................................... 5
2.2 Seasonal Adjustment Methods ................................................................................................. 6
2.3 Hodirck-Prescott Filter ............................................................................................................. 7
2.4 Summary.................................................................................................................................. 8
Chapter Three Methodology ........................................................................................................ 11
3.1 Data Collection ....................................................................................................................... 11
3.2 Technical Strategic Analysis .................................................................................................. 11
3.3 Seasonal Adjustment Method with X-12 ARIMA ................................................................. 14
3.4 Hodirck-Prescott Filter ........................................................................................................... 15
Chapter Four Empirical Analysis ............................................................................................... 17
4.1 Data Description ..................................................................................................................... 17
4.2 The Technical Strategy Analysis ............................................................................................ 18
4.3 The Business Cycle ................................................................................................................ 19
4.4 Investing Model Develop from Technical Strategy Analysis and Business Cycle ................ 20
4.5 Examine the Profitability for Investing Model ....................................................................... 23
4.6 Investing Model with Different Technical Analysis Tool ...................................................... 29
4.7 Summary and Discussion ....................................................................................................... 34
Chapter Five Summary and Discussion ..................................................................................... 35
References ....................................................................................................................................... 36
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