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系統識別號 U0026-0812200915072995
論文名稱(中文) 國內第三代行動電話服務之需求預測
論文名稱(英文) Forecasting Demand for 3G Mobile Services in Taiwan
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 電信管理研究所
系所名稱(英) Institute of Telecommunications and Management
學年度 97
學期 2
出版年 98
研究生(中文) 張湄萱
研究生(英文) Mei-Hsuan Chang
學號 r9694105
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 93頁
口試委員 口試委員-王明妤
口試委員-黃光渠
指導教授-廖俊雄
中文關鍵字 二項羅吉特模式  彈性  巴斯擴散模型  3G服務之需求預測 
英文關鍵字 Binary logit model  Forecasting demand of 3G service  demand elasticity  Bass diffusion model 
學科別分類
中文摘要 國內第三代行動電話(3G)服務業者背負著沉重的執照費用與投資成本下,對於未來3G服務需求應有了解的迫切。本研究透過二項羅吉特模型(Binary logit model, BL),探討可能影響3G服務之因素與有意願選擇3G服務之機率,並與巴斯擴散模型(Bass diffusion model)相結合來預測國內用戶對於3G服務的需求,冀望提供國內3G業者在擬定行銷策略與投資策略上成本效益分析之參考與建議。
經問卷收集與實證分析後有二大重要結果,一為探討可能影響國內消費者使用3G服務之因素,分別為「3G手機特性」強調手機在使用上的方便性與容易操作性,「3G服務品質」針對通話品質與業者服務口碑,強調服務品質為行動通訊最基本的要求,「3G使用成本」包含月租費、語音通話費率、影像通話費率、數據傳輸費率與優惠方案的搭配,強調當使用成本越低3G服務的使用意願越高,最後發現有高意願使用3G服務的使用者為「高收入」與「高行動電話費用」特性的群體,供行動電話服務業者參考。二為國內未來3G服務需求之預測,發現民國96年至民國100年將是3G服務發展迅速的成長期,3G服務的普及率也將會從24.56%提升至101.08%;而從民國101年至民國106年3G服務正式進入成熟期,普及率從始終維持100.05%與2G服務的發展況相似,可以知道3G服務將是演變為未來趨勢而取代2G市場。
英文摘要 Taiwan 3G telecomunications operators with heavy burden of license expenses have to invest huge amount of costs in network construction in recent years. There should exist motives for them to understand the future demand of using 3G services. The study adopts binary logit model to analyze the influential factors and probability of using 3G service. Together with Bass diffusion model, this study then forecasts the annual demand of 3G service during the ten-year period of 2009 to 2018. The results hopefully provide useful suggetions to 3G operators while making operating strategy and marketing strategy.
The results are summarized as follow. The influential factors of 3G service usage include〝3G handset features〞,〝3G service quality〞and〝3G service cost〞. That is, more convenient and easilier manipulative handset, higher call quality and better operator’s reputation, and lower monthly rental/service rate and more attractive promotion increase mobile subscribers to use 3G service. Further, mobile subscribers with high income and high monthly expenses for service tend to switch to the 3G service. In the forecasting of future 3G service demand, it is found that the service will dastically grow during 2007 to 2011 with the 3G penetration rate from 24.86% to 101.08%. Then the 3G service will maintain in the highly mature status. Such a growth pattern is similar to that of 2G service.
論文目次 目 錄
表 目 錄............................................. V
圖 目 錄..............................................VI
第一章 緒論..........................................1
1.1 研究背景與動機...................................1
1.2 研究目的.........................................4
1.3 研究範圍與限制...................................5
1.4 研究流程.........................................5
第二章 文獻回顧......................................8
2.1 第三代行動電話服務之市場現況與服務應用...........8
2.2 科技產品與服務需求之相關文獻.....................20
2.3 文獻模式相關變數.................................34
第三章 研究方法......................................39
3.1 研究架構.........................................39
3.2. 因素分析.........................................41
3.3 羅吉特模型.......................................41
3.4 巴斯擴散模型.....................................47
3.5 問卷設計與前測...................................51
第四章 實證分析......................................54
4.1 抽樣設計與樣本統計分析...........................54
4.2 因素分析與信度分析...............................58
4.3 二項羅吉特個體選擇模式 ...........................63
4.4 巴斯擴散模型.....................................69
第五章 結論與建議....................................77
5.1 結論.............................................77
5.2 建議 .............................................79
參考文獻..............................................81
附錄一 前測問卷信度分析結果.........................86
附錄二 正式問卷......................................87
附錄三 民國87年3月至民國97年12月人口數月資料與2G服務的月銷售資料 .............................................. 91
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