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系統識別號 U0026-0812200914340908
論文名稱(中文) 以通聯記錄進行行動電話用戶之流失分析與評估
論文名稱(英文) Exploring Call Detail Records for Churn Analysis in a Telecommunication Company
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 工程科學系專班
系所名稱(英) Department of Engineering Science (on the job class)
學年度 96
學期 2
出版年 97
研究生(中文) 薛焜鴻
研究生(英文) Kun-Hong Xue
電子信箱 n9794108@mail.ncku.edu.tw
學號 n9794108
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 63頁
口試委員 口試委員-高宏宇
指導教授-鄧維光
口試委員-侯廷偉
口試委員-戴碧如
中文關鍵字 通聯記錄  顧客流失  圖形理論  社會網路分析 
英文關鍵字 graph theory  call detail records  customer churn  social network analysis 
學科別分類
中文摘要 在行動通訊市場漸趨飽和的狀態下,電信業者間之競爭亦愈趨激烈,在無法有效地增加新用戶的情況下,如何減少顧客流失已成為一個重要的研究課題。本論文運用社會網路分析的方法與圖形理論,探索行動電話用戶的通聯記錄,以瞭解用戶之行為與社群,並進一步地提出一個核心成員發現演算法,用以搜尋行動電話用戶社群之核心成員。顯而易見地,這些核心成員在該社群中具有相當的影響力,一旦這些核心成員轉換到其他電信業者,將產生一連串的連鎖效應進而導致更多用戶的流失,因此藉由穩定核心成員,方可降低顧客流失的機率。最後,本文所提之核心成員發現演算法在透過實驗結果的驗證後,發現其不僅具有理論的完整性,且可應用於真實的資料環境中,並提供電信業者一個及早發現與減少顧客流失的參考方法。
英文摘要 As the market of mobile communication gradually gets saturated in recent years, the competition among telecommunication operators also becomes severe. While it is difficult to effectively attract new subscribers, to reduce customer churn has become a critical issue. In this work, we utilize techniques of social network analysis and graph theory to explore the call detail records so as to understand more about user behavior in their communities. Moreover, we propose in this work an algorithm to discover core members in their respective communities. It can be easily noticed that core members are with significant influence power and network values. More customer churns may happen as core members transfer to another telecommunication operator. Thus, the possibility of customer churn can be reduced by satisfying core members. Through empirical studies, our approach is not only of solid theoretical basis but also feasible in real telecommunication environment. Consequently, our approach can provide telecommunication operators a valuable reference to identify and to reduce customer churn in early stages.
論文目次 第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 本論文之貢獻 3
第二章 文獻探討 4
2.1 顧客流失之定義與成因 4
2.2 電信環境之資料管理 7
2.3 顧客流失議題之既有研究探討 9
2.3.1 資料探勘與預測子之建立 10
2.3.2 顧客流失預測與偵測之既有研究探討 12
2.4 圖形理論與呈現 15
2.5 社群與社會網路 16
第三章 研究方法 20
3.1 通話關聯圖之形成 20
3.2 行動電話用戶社群之探勘 22
3.2.1 行動電話用戶社群之形成要素 22
3.2.2 行動電話用戶社群之正式定義 23
3.2.3 緊密度 (Closeness) 24
3.2.4 分群係數 (Clustering Coefficient) 26
3.2.5 行動電話用戶社群發掘之範例 28
3.3 核心成員之發現 30
3.3.1 PageRank演算法 30
3.3.2 核心成員發現演算法 33
3.4 核心成員與用戶流失分析與評估之關聯 36
第四章 實驗探討與結果 38
4.1 實驗環境與測試資料 38
4.1.1 實驗環境 38
4.1.2 通聯記錄資料集 39
4.1.3 通聯記錄資料集之資料前置處理 39
4.2 行動電話用戶社群之呈現 41
4.2.1 行動電話用戶社群之分佈 41
4.2.2 行動電話用戶社群發掘過程之觀察 43
4.3 核心成員之呈現 48
4.3.1 核心成員發現演算法之適切性評估 48
4.3.2 阻尼因子對成員強度之影響 51
4.3.3 門檻值對核心成員數量之影響 53
第五章 結論與未來工作 56
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