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系統識別號 U0026-0812200913454679
論文名稱(中文) 應用模糊決策樹分析於研發型專案風險之評估
論文名稱(英文) Using the fuzzy decision tree to analyze the risk assessment of a research and development project
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 製造工程研究所
系所名稱(英) Institute of Manufacturing Engineering
學年度 95
學期 2
出版年 96
研究生(中文) 林榮泰
研究生(英文) Rong-Tai Lin
電子信箱 p9694106@mail.ncku.edu.tw
學號 p9694106
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 91頁
口試委員 口試委員-鄭芳田
口試委員-林煥章
口試委員-郭宜雍
指導教授-楊大和
中文關鍵字 研發型專案  模糊理論  專案風險管理  模糊決策樹  風險評估 
英文關鍵字 Research and Development project  Project risk management  Fuzzy Decision Tree  Fuzzy theory  Risk assessment 
學科別分類
中文摘要 隨著科技快速發展與新技術不斷地創新,且研發工作的營運模式大多是以專案型態進行,而在科技與新產品的快速發展過程中,常因複雜的科技研發過程難以控制,因此公司如何慎選開發專案與辨識風險將會影響著公司營運發展,並使用科學化的方法,盡可能事前預防或降低風險所帶來的衝擊,增加專案完成的機會,以達成專案的目標,使得專案風險管理是專案人員值得思索的課題。
模糊決策樹(Fuzzy Decision Tree)是結合模糊理論與決策樹演算法的新演算法,且近年來也逐漸被討論,並且被廣泛地使用於資料探勘的分類方法論。它的發展是建立在利用模糊集合減少分類不明確,並能自然地表示人們的想法,更穩健地處理認知與觀念上模糊分類的問題。
因此本研究嘗試以降低專案執行風險為目標,根據模糊決策樹的架構,定義出分類項目與衡量指標,採用歸納演算法生成可讀的規則。在研究過程中,探討影響專案風險的構面及風險因子,並透過問卷調查某一研發專案組織對該組織專案風險因子的影響程度,以探討分類專案風險等級及量化其風險值之管理意涵。
本論文提出之風險評估模式,已提供公司在依序執行的研發專案進行風險辨識,使得專案人員可以更清楚掌握關鍵風險因子,且加強對專案風險的概念及對專案目標的影響。執行此風險評估模式後已獲成效,公司在獲利上已有顯著提升,且明顯改善先前經常造成專案失敗的情況。
英文摘要 It is difficult to control the process of scientific and new products development. This is because the development of science and new technology, and operation modes of development are often going with the project. Hence, how the company selects to develop a project and distinguishes risks will influence the company a lot. So, using the scientific method, preventing or reducing the impact that a risk brings as soon as possible and offering more opportunities that a project is successful, are the projects that should be focused on.
Fuzzy decision tree is a new algorithm, which combines the fuzzy theory and the decision tree algorithm. It has been gradually discussed in recent years, and has been widely used the in categorized methodology prospected of material. Fuzzy decision tree is set upon utilizing and gathering fuzzily for reducing and classifying indeterminately. Also, it can express people's idea naturally, which helps to deal with cognition and fuzzy problem more surely.
This research will discuss about reducing risks of the project. Besides, categorized projects and indicators will be defined through the fuzzy decision tree theory and the rule of algorithms. In the process of studying, I’ve discussed the risk factors of the projects, surveyed an organization about how risk factors influence the project, in order to discuss the level of categorized the project risk and the meaning of quantization management risk.
The thesis of risk evaluates which is discussed in this research, has offered the company to distinguish risks when assessing the projects. Also, it enables risk factors easy to be identified, strengthen the concept of the project risk and help to success a project. A company has already obtained more profit, and prevented the failures which it used to face very often before, through assessing the thesis of risk evaluates.
論文目次 目錄
摘要 i
Abstract ii
誌 謝 iv
目錄 v
圖目錄 vii
表目錄 viii
1. 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景 1
1.2 研究動機 1
1.3 研究目的 2
1.4 研究流程 3
1.5 研究限制 3
1.6 論文架構 4
2. 文獻探討 5
2.1 專案與風險管理 5
2.2 模糊理論 14
2.3 資料探勘 17
2.4 決策樹 20
2.5 模糊決策樹 25
3. 研究方法 28
3.1 方法描述 28
3.2 建構模糊決策樹方法 28
4. 研究結果與分析 39
4.1 案例說明 39
4.2 資料收集整理 40
5. 結論與建議 82
5.1 研究結論 82
5.2 研究建議 84
參考文獻 86
附錄 90

圖目錄
圖1.1 研究流程圖 3
圖2.1 五大過程群組之聯結關係圖 7
圖2.2 三角歸屬函數 15
圖2.3 梯形歸屬函數 16
圖2.4 決策樹示意圖 21
圖2.5 模糊決策樹之屬性值三個模糊語意 26
圖3.1 模糊決策樹建構流程圖 29
圖3.2 成本屬性之三個歸屬函數 30
圖3.3 範例模糊決策樹 36
圖3.4 模糊決策樹_解模糊 38
圖4.1 設計材料成本模糊化例子 45
圖4.2 成本風險決策樹 48
圖4.3 模擬成本資料的模糊決策樹 56
圖4.4 時間風險決策樹 60
圖4.5 模擬時間資料的模糊決策樹 63
圖4.6 品質風險決策樹 67
圖4.7 模擬品質資料的模糊決策樹 71
圖4.8 市場風險決策樹 75
圖4.9 模擬市場資料的模糊決策樹 79
圖4.10 專案整體風險評估模式 80

表目錄
表2.1 專案與一般工作或作業之異同 5
表2.2 專案管理與一般管理的差異表 6
表2.3 機率─衝擊矩陣 11
表2.4 資料探勘技術功能表 19
表2.5 決策樹演算法之差異表 23
表3.1 範例訓練資料 33
表3.2 範例資料中風力屬性的模糊度計算表 34
表4.1 探討風險因子說明 40
表4.2 專案類別表 41
表4.3 設計材料成本佔預算百分比 41
表4.4 設計變更成本佔預算百分比 42
表4.5 因需求不確定所造成成本佔預算百分比 43
表4.6 專案的成本風險影響程度 44
表4.7 模糊化設計材料成本超出預算百分比 45
表4.8 模糊化設計變更成本超出預算百分比 46
表4.9 模糊化因需求不確定所造成成本超出預算百分比 46
表4.10 成本風險分類模糊化 47
表4.11 成本模糊決策樹分類結果 49
表4.12 專案成本的配適分配 50
表4.13 模擬成本資料 51
表4.14 不同專案規模下的各項成本預算 51
表4.15 模擬設計材料成本超出預算百分比 52
表4.16 模擬設計變更成本超出預算百分比 53
表4.17 模擬因需求不確定所造成成本超出預算百分比 54
表4.18 模擬樣本成本風險影響程度 55
表4.19 專案完成時間超出預定時間的百分比 57
表4.20 專案的時間風險影響程度 58
表4.21 模糊化專案時間延遲百分比 59
表4.22 時間風險分類模糊化 60
表4.23 時間模糊決策樹分類結果 61
表4.24 專案完成時間配適分配 62
表4.25 模擬專案完成時間延遲百分比 62
表4.26 技術能力未能掌握程度 64
表4.27 產品功能未能了解程度 64
表4.28 專案的品質風險影響程度 65
表4.29 模糊化技術能力未能掌握程度 66
表4.30 模糊化產品功能未能了解程度 66
表4.31 品質風險分類模糊化 67
表4.32 品質模糊決策樹分類結果 68
表4.33 模擬技術能力未能了解程度及產品功能未能了解程度 69
表4.34 模擬品質樣本分類結果 70
表4.35 市場環境未能掌握程度 72
表4.36 專案的市場風險影響程度 73
表4.37 模糊化市場環境未能暸解程度 74
表4.38 市場風險分類模糊化 75
表4.39 市場模糊決策樹分類結果 76
表4.40 模擬未能了解市場環境程度 77
表4.41 模擬市場樣本分類結果 78
表4.42 專案風險評估模式分類結果 81
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