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系統識別號 U0026-0812200913372280
論文名稱(中文) 洪水設計流量區域公式之研究
論文名稱(英文) A Study on Regional Design Flow Formula
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 水利及海洋工程學系碩博士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Hydraulics & Ocean Engineering
學年度 95
學期 2
出版年 96
研究生(中文) 蔡慧萍
研究生(英文) Hui-Ping Tsai
學號 N8694402
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 105頁
口試委員 口試委員-楊道昌
口試委員-李錦育
口試委員-吳瑞賢
指導教授-游保杉
中文關鍵字 區域公式  設計流量  未量測集水區  群集分析  主成分分析 
英文關鍵字 regional method  ungauged basins  Design flow  principal component analysis  cluster analysis 
學科別分類
中文摘要 在未設測站集水區中推估尖峰流量為水資源規劃設計之重要課題,過去針對區域內觀測流量不足的難題,通常使用區域分析將區域內水文資料延伸至未量測地點。本研究首先考慮流量空間上的異質性,利用多變量統計分析中的主成分分析及群集分析,以地文因子做為分區變量,將台灣西部主要流域共劃分為三個流量均一區,並在有相似地文特徵的區域中選取適用流量站,利用集水區面積、主流長度、平均高程、平均坡度等地文因子,與經頻率分析後所得不同重現期距之設計流量,建立第一區、第二區與橫跨第一區及第二區的跨區之設計流量公式,再進一步整合不同重現期距公式建立洪水設計流量區域公式,以提供水利工程上規劃設計之用。
分析結果顯示,第一區及跨區皆通過5%顯著水準的F檢定,亦即設計流量與地文因子存在顯著關係,模擬結果第一區及跨區之大多測站皆有良好模擬結果,且經交叉驗證顯示出此二區域公式之適用性,第二區因測站過少,代表性較為不足,導致無法建立合用的公式。在整合不同重現期距之公式參數時,其廻歸所得判定係數皆在0.9以上,經模擬結果可知在推估任何重現期距的設計流量有一定準確性。另外亦建立全區公式與分區公式相比較,結果得知分區公式之誤差較比全區公式誤差低,顯示分區之重要性。綜合以上結果,本研究發展此設計流量區域公式,除能對設計流量有準確的模擬外,對於全區公式而言可有效提升推估的精度,更期望能夠提供在水資源規劃設計中估算設計流量之依據。
英文摘要 Estimating design flow in ungauged basins is a task frequently occurred in the design and planning of hydraulic engineering. Regionalization is a way to deal with this issue. In this study, a regional formula is established using gauged flows and basin characteristics in order to estimate the design flows in ungauged sub-basins within the homogeneous region. At first, the principal component analysis and the cluster analysis were used to classify the small sub-basins, delineated by this work, in Western Taiwan into three homogeneous regions. Due to the limitation of data availability and the region characteristics, only two homogeneous regions, Region 1 and Region 2, were used to build regional design flow formulae. Besides, the regional formula with respect to the area crossing Regions 1 and 2, named Crossing Region, and the formula regarding both regions, named Whole Region, were established to assess comprehensively the performance of the proposed regionalization method. Regional regression functions of design flow with respect to different return periods were developed, with topographic inputs of basin area, length of main stream, mean elevation and mean slope. Moreover, the return period is found to have good correlation with parameters of regression functions. Therefore, this study integrated these regression functions with different return periods into a single regional design flow formula for easy implementation by engineers.
Statistical tests demonstrate that the design flows are significantly related to the topographic variables at the 5% significant level, pertaining to formulae of Region 1 and Crossing Region. But the significant test on the formula of Region 2 shows insignificance, primarily due to insufficiency of data from gauged stations in Region 2. The mean absolute relative errors in the simulation pertaining to Region 1 and Crossing Region are lower than the regional formula with respect to Whole Region. The results of cross validation show that the regional formulae in Region 1 and Crossing Region have good applicability, and prove that the delineation of homogeneous regions can enhance the performance of regional formulae to estimate design flow.
論文目次 摘 要 I
Abstract II
誌 謝 III
目 錄 IV
表目錄 VI
圖目錄 VIII
第一章 緒論 1
1-1 前言 1
1-2 文獻回顧 1
1-3 本文組織架構 4
第二章 研究區域與資料蒐集 6
2-1 研究區域概況 6
2-2 測站資料概況 7
第三章 流量均一區劃分 20
3-1 均一區變量選取 20
3-1-1 子集水區劃定 20
3-1-2 分析變量選取 21
3-2 區域化方法 23
3-2-1 主成分分析 23
3-2-2 華德法與K均值法 27
3-3 結果與討論 30
第四章 洪水設計流量區域公式 36
4-1 尖峰流量頻率分析 36
4-1-1 流量站之篩選 36
4-1-2 流量紀錄特異值檢測 37
4-1-3 頻率分析結果 38
4-2 區域化公式之建立 49
4-2-1 廻歸變量之選取 49
4-2-2 尖峰流量公式之建立 51
4-2-3 區域化公式模擬結果與驗證 56
4-3 區域化設計流量公式之整合及應用 63
4-4 全區公式之建立及比較 71
第五章 結論與建議 74
5-1 結論 74
5-2 建議 75
參考文獻 76
附錄A 模擬與驗證結果 79
A-1 數值結果 79
A-2 誤差百分比結果 98
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