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系統識別號 U0026-0812200912012112
論文名稱(中文) 存活分析應用於研發投資決策之研究 — 以全球前十大軸承公司為例
論文名稱(英文) The application of survival analysis on R&D investment decision making —the empirical evidence of top 10 bearing companies
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 高階管理碩士在職專班(EMBA)
系所名稱(英) Executive Master of Business Administration (EMBA)
學年度 94
學期 2
出版年 95
研究生(中文) 鄭東辰
研究生(英文) Tung-Chen Cheng
學號 r0791149
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
論文頁數 62頁
口試委員 指導教授-吳學良
召集委員-陳忠仁
口試委員-張紹基
中文關鍵字 Cox迴歸模型  實質選擇權  軸承 
英文關鍵字 Cox’s regression model  bearing  real option 
學科別分類
中文摘要 在研發階段的初期,如何在情勢未明的狀況下篩選具潛力之技術領域並利用有限的資源投入研發,一直是企業進行投資決策時所面臨的難題。因此,本研究利用實質選擇權的觀念來檢視企業對於新技術領域的投資決策模式。
我們以全球軸承產業前十大公司1989至2004年之專利資料作為分析樣本,並利用Cox迴歸模型來探討其技術的機會範圍、企業過去的投資經驗以及競爭的態勢等三個構面對於新技術領域後續研發投入的影響。
實證的結果顯示,先前的投資經驗對於企業投資意向的影響最大,其次為競爭態式最後才是機會的範圍。




英文摘要 In the initial stage of a new technology, it’s really difficult for firms to make R&D investment decisions under uncertain conditions. In this paper, we use real options reasoning to examine innovative investment decisions that take a firm into new technological areas.
We collect patent data of top 10 bearing companies for the period 1989–2004, and employ Cox’s regression model to identify three constructs—scope of opportunity, prior experience, and competitive effects—which have an influence on firms’ propensity to invest in new R&D options.
The empirical results show that prior experience has the greatest influence on the likelihood of taking out an option, followed by competitive effects and the scope of the opportunity.




論文目次 目 錄
中文摘要 I
英文摘要 II
誌謝 III
目錄 IV
表目錄 V
圖目錄 VI
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究範圍與目的 2
第三節 論文結構 4
第二章 文獻探討 5
第一節 研發投資決策方式 5
第二節 技術創新與專利分析 9
第三節 研究假設 22
第三章 研究方法 28
第一節 研究架構 28
第二節 操作性定義 30
第三節 研究對象與資料蒐集 32
第四節 存活分析 34
第四章 實證分析 42
第一節 基本統計量 42
第二節 模型建構 44
第三節 模型區辨能力 52
第五章 結論與建議 53
第一節 研究結論 53
第二節 管理意涵 54
第三節 研究建議 55
參考文獻 57
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