系統識別號 U0026-0812200912012112
論文名稱(中文) 存活分析應用於研發投資決策之研究 — 以全球前十大軸承公司為例
論文名稱(英文) The application of survival analysis on R&D investment decision making —the empirical evidence of top 10 bearing companies
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 高階管理碩士在職專班(EMBA)
系所名稱(英) Executive Master of Business Administration (EMBA)
學年度 94
學期 2
出版年 95
研究生(中文) 鄭東辰
研究生(英文) Tung-Chen Cheng
學號 r0791149
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
論文頁數 62頁
口試委員 指導教授-吳學良
中文關鍵字 Cox迴歸模型  實質選擇權  軸承 
英文關鍵字 Cox’s regression model  bearing  real option 
中文摘要 在研發階段的初期,如何在情勢未明的狀況下篩選具潛力之技術領域並利用有限的資源投入研發,一直是企業進行投資決策時所面臨的難題。因此,本研究利用實質選擇權的觀念來檢視企業對於新技術領域的投資決策模式。

英文摘要 In the initial stage of a new technology, it’s really difficult for firms to make R&D investment decisions under uncertain conditions. In this paper, we use real options reasoning to examine innovative investment decisions that take a firm into new technological areas.
We collect patent data of top 10 bearing companies for the period 1989–2004, and employ Cox’s regression model to identify three constructs—scope of opportunity, prior experience, and competitive effects—which have an influence on firms’ propensity to invest in new R&D options.
The empirical results show that prior experience has the greatest influence on the likelihood of taking out an option, followed by competitive effects and the scope of the opportunity.

論文目次 目 錄
中文摘要 I
英文摘要 II
誌謝 III
目錄 IV
表目錄 V
圖目錄 VI
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究範圍與目的 2
第三節 論文結構 4
第二章 文獻探討 5
第一節 研發投資決策方式 5
第二節 技術創新與專利分析 9
第三節 研究假設 22
第三章 研究方法 28
第一節 研究架構 28
第二節 操作性定義 30
第三節 研究對象與資料蒐集 32
第四節 存活分析 34
第四章 實證分析 42
第一節 基本統計量 42
第二節 模型建構 44
第三節 模型區辨能力 52
第五章 結論與建議 53
第一節 研究結論 53
第二節 管理意涵 54
第三節 研究建議 55
參考文獻 57
參考文獻 一、中文部份:
1. 俞善雄(2002),「軸承機械零組件產業調查」,經濟部工業局九十一年度科專計畫。
2. 林伯恒(2002),「專利分析對研發策略規劃之探討-以覆晶技術為例」,國立交通大學科技管理研究所碩士論文。
3. 林志維(2002),「競爭策略,技術環境,技術創新與創新績效之關係研究-以電子高科技業與化工業為研究對象」,國立成功大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
4. 鄭婷月(2002),「汽車貸款客戶之風險研究」,國立成功大學統計學研究所碩士論文。
5. 吳本恆(2002),「研發專案之價值衡量-實質選權分析」,元智大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
6. 鍾炫城(2000),「考慮R&D 與市場需求不確定下之高科技產業投資方案評估分析」,國立中央大學財務管理研究所碩士論文。
1. Abernathy, W. J. and J. M. Utterback (1978) “Patterns of Innovation in Technology”, Technology Review, 80(7), pp. 40-47.
2. Abernathy, W. J. and K. B. Clark (1985) “ Innovation: Mapping the winds of creative destruction”, Research Policy, 14(1), pp. 3-22.
3. Ahuja G (2000) “The duality of collaboration: inducement sand opportunities in the formation of interfirm linkage”, Strategic Management Journal, 21(3), pp. 317–343.
4. Ansoff, H. I. and J. M. Stewart (1967) “Strategies for a technology-based business”, Harvard Business Review, 45(6), pp. 71-83.
5. Bettis, R. A. and M. A. Hitt (1995) “The new competitive landscape.” Strategic Management Journal, 16, pp.7–19.
6. Betz, F. (1993) “Strategic Technology Management.” McGraw-Hill.
7. Bitondo, D. and Frohman, A., (1981) “Linking Technological and Business Planning”, Research Management, pp.21.
8. Black, F. and M. Scholes (1973) “The pricing of options and corporate liabilities”, Journal of Political Economy, 81, pp. 637–654.
9. Chatterjee, S., M. H. Lubatkin and W. S. Schulze (1999) “Toward a strategic theory of risk premium: moving beyond CAPM”, Academy of Management Review, 24(3), pp. 556–567.
10. Christensen, C. M. (1997) “The Innovator’s Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail”, Harvard Business School Press: Boston, MA.
11. Cohen, W. M. and D. A. Levinthal (1990) “Absorptive capacity: a new perspective on learning and innovation”, Administrative Science Quarterly, 35, pp. 128–152.
12. Cox, D. R. (1972) “Regression models and life tables”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, B34, pp. 187–220.
13. Dixit, A. (1992) “Investment and hysteresis”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 6, pp. 107–132.
14. Dixit, A. K. and R. S. Pindyck (1995) “The Options Approach to Capital Investment”, Harvard Business Review, 73, pp. 105-126.
15. Dierickx, I. and K. Cool (1989) “Asset stock accumulation and sustainability of competitive advantage”, Management Science, 35, pp. 1504–1511.
16. Gavetti, G. and D. A. Levinthal (2000) “Looking forward and looking backward: cognitive and experiential search”, Administrative Science, 45, pp. 113–137.
17. Hambrick, D. C., I. C. MacMillan and R. R. Barbosa (1983) “Business unit strategy and changes in the product R&D budget”, Management Science, 29, pp. 757–769.
18. Henderson, R. M and K. B. Clark (1990) “Architectural innovation: the reconfiguration of existing product technologies and the failure of established firms”, Administrative Science Quarterly, 35, pp. 9–30.
19. Henderson, R. M. and K. B. Clark. (1990) “ Architectural innovation: The reconfiguration of existing product technologies, and the failure of established firms”. Administrative Science Quarterly, 35(1), pp.9–30.
20. Kester, W. C. (1984) “Today’s Options for Tomorrow’s Growth”, Harvard Business Review, pp. 153-160.
21. Lane, P. J and M. Lubatkin (1998) “Relative absorptive capacity and interorganizational learning”, Strategic Management Journal, 19(5), pp. 461–477.
22. Lanjouw, J. O. and M. Schankerman (1999) “The quality of ideas: measuring innovation with multiple indicators”, NBER working paper no. W7345.
23. Lerner, J. (1995) “Patenting in the shadow of competitors”, Journal of Law and Economics, 38, pp. 463–495.
24. Levinthal, D. A. (1990) “Random walks and organizational mortality”, Administrative Science Quarterly, 36, pp. 397–420.
25. Levitt, B. and J. G. March (1988) “Organizational learning”, Annual Review of Sociology, 14, pp. 319–340.
26. Markides, C. C. (1999) “A Dynamic View of Strategy”, Sloan Management Review, 40, pp. 55-63.
27. McGrath, R. G. (1997) “A real options logic for initiating technology positioning investments”, Academy of Management Review, 22, pp. 974–996.
28. McGrath, B. and R. G. McGrath (2001) “Spillovers and strategy: implications of the network economy”, Working paper, Columbia Business School, New York.
29. McGrath, R. G. and A. Nerkar (2004) “Real option reasoning and a new look at the R&D investment strategies of pharmaceutical firms”, Strategic Management Journal, 25, pp. 1–21 .
30. Perlitz, M., T. Peske and R. Schrank (1999) “Real options valuation:the new frontier in R&D project evaluation?”, R&D Management, 29(3), pp. 255-269.
31. Myers, S. C. (1977) “Determinants of Corporate Borrowing”, Journal of Financial Economics, 5, pp. 147-175.
32. Mansfield, E., M. Schwartz and S. Wagner (1981) “Imitation costs and patents: An empirical study”, Economic Journal, 91, pp. 907-918.
33. Marquish, D. G. (1982) “The Anatomy of Successful Innovation”, Winthrop Publishers, Cambridge.
34. Maidique, M. A. and P. Patch (1982) “Corporate strategy and technological policy”, Strategic Management of Technology Innovation, pp. 236- 248.
35. Mitchell, G. R. and W. F. Hamilton (1988) “Managing R&D as a strategic option”, Research-Technology Management, 27, pp. 15–22.
36. Morris, P. A., E. O. Teisberg and A. L. Kolbe (1991) “When choosing R&D projects, go with long shots”, Research-Technology Management, pp. 35–40.
37. March, J. G. (1991) “Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning”, Organization Science, 2, pp. 71–87.
38. Miller, K. D. and T. B. Folta (2002) “Option value and entry timing”, Strategic Management Journal, 23(7), pp. 655–665.
39. Mogee, M. E. (1991) “Using patent data for technology analysis and planning”, Research Technology Management, 34, pp. 43-49.
40. Nelson, R. R. and S. G. Winter (1982) “An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change”, Belknap Harvard: Cambridge,MA.
41. Nichols, N. A. (1994) “Medicine, management, and mergers: an interview with Merck’s P. Roy Vagelos”, Harvard Business Review, 72(6), pp. 105–114.
42. Rosenkopf, L. and A. Nerkar (2001) “Beyond local search: boundary spanning, exploration, and impact in the optical disc industry”, Strategic Management Journal, 22(4), pp. 287–306.
43. Shane, S. (2001) “Technological opportunities and new firm creation”, Management Science, 47, pp. 205–220.
44. Sørensen, J. B and T. E. Stuart (2000) “Aging, obsolescence and organizational innovation”, Administrative Science Quarterly, 45, pp. 81–112.
45. Schumann, P., D. Prestwood, A. Tong and J. Vanston (1994) “Innovate: Straight Path to Quality, Customer Delight, and Competitive Advantage”, McGraw-Hill: NY.
46. Trigeorgis, L. (1991) “Anticipated competitive entry and early preemptive investment in deferrable projects”, Journal of Economics and Business, 43, pp. 143–156.
47. Trigeorgis, L. (1996) “Real Options: Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource allocation”, MIT Press: Cambridge, MA.
48. Trigeorgis, L. and S. P. Mason, (1997) “Valuing Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation”, Mildland Corporate Journal, 1, pp. 20-36.
49. Tong, X. and D. J. Frame (1994) “Measuring national technological performance with patent claims data”, Research Policy, 23, pp. 133–142.
50. Zahra, S. A. and S. Das (1993) “Innovation strategy and financial performance in manufacturing companies: An empirical analysis”, Production and Operations Management, 2(1), pp. 15-37.

  • 同意授權校內瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,於2008-07-27起公開。
  • 同意授權校外瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,於2009-07-27起公開。

  • 如您有疑問,請聯絡圖書館