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系統識別號 U0026-0812200911390568
論文名稱(中文) 電子商務專案之風險因素分析-實質選擇權模式的應用
論文名稱(英文) Application of Real Options Model to Analyze E-commerce Project Risk
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 工業與資訊管理學系碩博士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Industrial and Information Management
學年度 93
學期 2
出版年 94
研究生(中文) 王姿婷
研究生(英文) Tzu-Ting Wang
學號 r3692130
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 85頁
口試委員 口試委員-許如欽
指導教授-呂執中
口試委員-傅新彬
口試委員-李志宏
中文關鍵字 專案風險  電子商務專案  電子商務專案生命週期  實質選擇權 
英文關鍵字 project life cycle  real option  project risk  e-business project 
學科別分類
中文摘要   資訊科技的快速進步,將企業帶進知識經濟時代。面對現今電子化、知識化、創新化的全球競爭,如何有效應用資訊科技整合企業資源,已是所有產業升級及永續經營的關鍵要素。為了因應此一趨勢,企業有必要導入電子商務專案以提升企業營運效益與帶動產業整體競爭力。電子商務專案投資雖可為企業帶來競爭優勢,但也會增加企業經營的風險,由於電子商務專案失敗率很高,因此為了增加電子商務專案推動的成功機率,需要一套能夠客觀且量化的分析專案風險的準則,以提供電子商務專案推動者參考。

  本研究結合電子商務專案生命週期與實質選擇權的概念,提出一適用於電子商務專案的風險評估模式,以提升電子商務專案避險的決策品質。所建立之電子商務專案風險評估模式,首先確定風險分析流程,以規劃電子商務專案及界定專案生命週期。接著,針對風險分析作相關的資料收集與歸納,包含風險定義、風險量化及避險措施的制定。最後,結合實質選擇權模式評估專案價值,以衡量專案價值供電子商務專案推動者作相關避險決策的依據。

  將本研究之風險評估模式導入實際個案後發現,當電子商務專案管理者考量的風險因素愈多代表擁有的管理彈性愈高,則其整體的專案價值愈高。可得知在電子商務專案導入前,若能考量較多的風險狀況發生,則所預期的電子商務專案發展較能符合真實的情境,藉此能減少因風險所帶來的損失與威脅。另外,本研究之風險評估模式結合了實質選擇權的概念,這項方法較能掌握專案之不確定因素,以彌補傳統財務分析法過於簡化及僵固的缺失,提供電子商務專案管理者更準確的評估方式。
英文摘要   Modern information technology brings many enterprises into a new era. In facing global competition, using information technology effectively to integrate enterprise resource is essential for business sustainability. While the investment in e-business project, such as e-commerce, may create competitive advantage for enterprises, it also raises the risk of running the business. In observation of the high failure rate of e-business projects, it is necessary to establish an objective and quantitative framework to analyze e-commerce project risk.

  This thesis combines the concept of project life cycle and real option to propose a framework for the risk assessment of the e-commerce project in order to be used as the basis for decision of hedging e-commerce project. The framework starts from the confirmation of risk analysis procedure in order to identify the e-commerce project life cycle. Through the definition and quantification of risks as well as the resolution strategy selection, the empirical data of the risks is collected and analyzed. Finally, by using the real option model to measure the value of e-commerce project, the data can provide the project managers to make necessary hedging decisions.

  Based on the case study, this research finds out that the more risk factors were considered by a project manager, better management flexibility and higher value of the project can be gained. That is, before the initialization of a project, if the consideration of risks is more thoughtful, the development of the project can be in better progress. The proposed framework also demonstrates to be a better way to control uncertain factors in an e-commerce project compared to the traditional financial models.
論文目次 中 文 摘 要 І
英 文 摘 要 ІІ
誌 謝 III
目 錄 IV
圖 目 錄 VI
表 目 錄 VII

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第三節 研究範圍與限制 2
第四節 研究流程 3

第二章 文獻探討 5
第一節 風險 5
一、 定義 5
二、 風險辨識 5
三、 風險評估工具 6
四、 風險量化標準 7
五、 小結 8
第二節 電子化與專案風險 8
一、 電子商務 8
二、 電子商務專案 9
三、 專案風險 13
四、 電子商務專案風險 17
五、 小結 24
第三節 實質選擇權 24
一、 擴張選擇權 25
二、 實質選擇權定義 25
三、 實質選擇權的分類 26
四、 傳統投資評價與實質選擇權評價方法的不同 28
五、 實質選擇權之各種模式 28
六、 投資專案與實質選擇權之關聯性 32
七、 小結 37

第三章 風險評估模式 38
第一節 模式架構 38
第二節 電子商務專案之風險因素分析 41
第三節 模式探討 54

第四章 個案研究 57
第一節 個案公司背景 57
一、 個案公司簡介 57
二、 產業發展特性 57
三、 營業狀況 57
四、 個案公司所面臨的問題 59
第二節 電子商務專案之風險因素分析 61
第三節 討論 79

第五章 結論與建議 80
第一節 結論 80
第二節 未來研究方向 81

參考文獻 83
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