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系統識別號 U0026-0812200911375426
論文名稱(中文) 影響揭露盈餘資訊準確性因素之研究-以兩岸上市公司為例
論文名稱(英文) The Determinants of the Accuracy of Earnings Information-Empirical Evidence from Listed Companies in Taiwan and China
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 會計學系碩博士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Accountancy
學年度 94
學期 2
出版年 95
研究生(中文) 馮軒綾
研究生(英文) Hsuan-Ling Feng
學號 r1691111
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 75頁
口試委員 口試委員-簡金成
口試委員-高蘭芬
指導教授-邱正仁
中文關鍵字 預測準確性  財務預測  自結盈餘盈餘 
英文關鍵字 accuracy of forecast  earnings forecast  un-audited earnings 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本研究旨在探討影響兩岸盈餘預測的因素。就台灣而言,2004年以前(包括),財務預測在某些特定情況下屬於強制揭露的資訊,而中國大陸在2000、2001年間,已改為自願性揭露。故本研究選取1994-2003年兩岸上市公司為樣本,探究財務預測準確性的影響因素,此外,自2002年實施的自結損益制度,規範已公開財務預測上市(櫃)公司,應於年度終了後一個月內,公告申報預計損益表之達成情形及差異原因,故另選取2001-2003年強制性揭露自結盈餘的上市公司為樣本,一併探討影響其準確性之因素。
實證結果發現:從單變量t檢定結果而言,中國大陸財務預測的準確性較台灣者高;台灣自結盈餘的準確性較台灣財務預測者高。而複迴歸結果顯示,台灣財務預測準確性(標準化預測誤差絕對值)顯著受到下列因素影響:預測期間、過去盈餘變異性、公司規模、負債比例、發佈目的為IPO、發佈目的為SEO、稅前淨利率;中國大陸財務預測準確性(標準化預測誤差絕對值)顯著受到下列因素影響:預測期間、經濟變動情況、公司規模、負債比例、發佈目的為IPO、法規變動年度;台灣自結盈餘準確性(自結盈餘誤差絕對值)顯著受到下列因素影響:預測期間、過去盈餘變異性、公司規模、負債比例、董監持股比例、稅前淨利率、應收帳款占總資產比例、存貨佔總資產比例。



英文摘要 The main purpose of this study is to investigate the determinants of the accuracy of earnings forecast in Taiwan and China. Before 2005, the disclosure of earnings forecast is mandatory under some specific situations in Taiwan, and that is voluntary in China after 2000 or 2001. This study sample contains the companies of Taiwan and China required to disclosure the earnings forecast from 1994 to 2003. Otherwise, companies which issued earnings forecast are required to announce preliminary(un-audited)earnings in Taiwan since 2002, so our research sample also contains these companies from 2001 to 2003 in order to examine the relationship between accuracy of preliminary earnings and its determinants.

Our empirical results show that earnings forecast of China is more accurate than that of Taiwan. In Taiwan, the preliminary earnings is more accurate than earnings forecast. Besides, we find in terms of the accuracy of earnings forecast in Taiwan, the significant discriminative factors are interval of forecast, firm size, leverage, purpose of announcement, and earning ratio(pretax).In the case of the accuracy of earnings forecast in China, the significant discriminative factors are interval of forecast, change of economic condition, firm size, leverage, purpose of announcement (IPO), change of law. Finally, the factors that affect the accuracy of preliminary earnings significantly in Taiwan are interval of forecast, variation of past earnings, firm size, leverage, insider shareholdings, account receivables to total assets ratio, inventories to total assets ratio.



論文目次 目錄
第一章 緒論………………………………………………………………1
第一節 研究背景………………………………………………………1
第二節 研究動機與目的………………………………………………4
第三節 論文架構………………………………………………………6
第二章 文獻探討…………………………………………………………7
第一節 財務預測制度之沿革…………………………………………7
第二節 財務預測之相關研究…………………………………………24
第三章 研究方法…………………………………………………………28
第一節 研究架構………………………………………………………28
第二節 研究假說之建立………………………………………………29
第三節 研究變數之衡量………………………………………………34
第四節 樣本選取及資料來源…………………………………………39
第四章 實證結果與分析…………………………………………………40
第一節 敘述性統計結果………………………………………………40
第二節 比較兩岸財務預測誤差之單變量檢定………………………50
第三節 台灣強制自結盈餘誤差之單變量檢定………………………55
第四節 複迴歸結果分析………………………………………………61
第五章 研究結論與建議…………………………………………………68
第一節 研究結論………………………………………………………68
第二節 研究限制與建議………………………………………………70
參考文獻……………………………………………………………………71
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