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系統識別號 U0026-0812200911080470
論文名稱(中文) 考慮潛在變數之國道客運選擇模式
論文名稱(英文) Disaggregate Intercity Passenger Bus Choice Models with Latent Variables
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 交通管理學系碩博士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Transportation & Communication Management Science
學年度 92
學期 2
出版年 93
研究生(中文) 周瑀清
研究生(英文) Yu-Ching Chou
電子信箱 yuchingchou@yahoo.com.tw
學號 r5691402
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 105頁
口試委員 指導教授-段良雄
口試委員-王小娥
口試委員-楊志文
中文關鍵字 結構方程模式  個體選擇模式  個體異質性  國道客運 
英文關鍵字 Structural equation modeling  Heterogeneity  Discrete choice model  Intercity bus 
學科別分類
中文摘要   個體選擇模式廣泛地應用於消費者選擇行為之研究,然而在傳統的個體選擇模式中,效用函數僅放入可觀測的方案屬性與個人特性,卻沒有加入影響消費者選擇的心理因素,使得模式之解釋能力遭受質疑。處理不可觀測變數的方法常見的有因素分析與結構方程模式,其中僅有結構方程模式能夠探討變數間的因果關係,故本研究之主要目的為結合羅機模式與結構方程模式於國道客運旅運者選擇行為之研究,以改進過去未能適當在個體選擇模式中處理潛在變數之問題,此外亦考慮個體異質性之問題。研究範圍為國道客運高雄至台北路線。
  在處理潛在變數之選擇模式的部份,實證結果顯示,加入了服務品質滿意度之後,選擇模式的解釋能力大幅提昇,顯示此研究方法之有效性。程序與聯立兩種不同校估方式所得到的結果不完全相同,若使用程序數值法進行校估,則會使得車內旅行時間之參數符號不正確且t值不顯著,亦會低估票價的重要性。
  在處理潛在變數與個體異質之選擇模式的部份,實證結果顯示,當使用聯立數值法校估模式時,因效用函數包含潛在變數之隨機誤差項,因而造成品味差異項不顯著異於零,而當使用程序數值法校估模式時,則需包含品味差異項,否則會使得估計值有所偏誤。

英文摘要   Discrete choice models have been extensively used to analyze consumer’s choice behavior. Traditionally, these models used only observed attributes and individual characteristics. The psychological factors affecting decision-making generally were not included in the utility function, which resulted in poor explanatory power. Factor analysis and structural equation model have been widely used in models with latent variables. However, only structural equation model can specify the cause-and-effect relationships between variables. Therefore, this study aims to combine structural equation model with multinomial logit model to incorporate latent variables into the choice model. Furthermore, this study also considers the individual’s taste heterogeneity. The empirical case is intercity bus route serving Kaohsiung and Taipei.
  The empirical results demonstrated the effectiveness of this methodology. It showed that the inclusion of latent variables significantly improved goodness-of-fit measure of the choice model. Two estimation methods, sequential and simultaneous, were adopted in this paper. The empirical results showed that these two methods yielded different results both in the choice model and in the structural equation model. When using the sequential numerical approach, the coefficient of in-vehicle travel time had the wrong sign and was less significant. Furthermore, the weight of fare variable was underestimated in the choice model.
  The empirical results showed that the individual’s taste heterogeneity was not significant when using the simultaneous numerical approach. The reason was that there were the latent variable’s random disturbance terms in the utility function. However, when using the sequential numerical approach, the taste heterogeneity should be included in the choice model or the estimators would be biased.

論文目次 中文摘要 I
英文摘要 II
誌 謝 III
目 錄 IV
表目錄 VII
圖目錄 VIII
第一章 緒論 1
1-1 研究動機與目的 1
1-2 研究範圍與限制 3
1-3 研究方法 3
1-4 研究內容與架構 4
第二章 文獻回顧 7
2-1 消費者決策行為理論 7
2-2 考慮潛在變數之選擇模式 9
2-3 結構方程模式之應用 18
2-3-1 國內應用實例 18
2-3-2 國外應用實例 22
2-3-3 小結 26
2-4 整合模式之應用 26
2-4-1 國內應用實例 27
2-4-2 國外應用實例 29
2-4-3 小結 33
第三章 模式理論與架構 35
3-1 個體選擇模式之基本理論 35
3-2 結構方程模式 36
3-3 模式內容與架構 37
3-3-1 處理潛在變數之選擇模式 37
3-3-2 處理個體異質性之選擇模式 40
3-4 整合模式之校估方法 41
3-4-1 程序數值法 41
3-4-2 聯立數值法 44
第四章 資料蒐集與分析 48
4-1 問卷設計 48
4-2 問卷調查 50
4-2-1 抽樣方式 50
4-2-2 調查方式 50
4-2-3 調查時間 51
4-3 問卷回收與資料分析 51
4-3-1 問卷回收概況 51
4-3-2 社經特性分析 52
4-3-3 旅次資料分析 53
4-3-4 服務品質滿意度分析 55
4-3-5 車內旅行時間與票價分析 64
第五章 實證結果 66
5-1 因素分析 66
5-2 未考慮潛在變數之選擇模式 69
5-3 處理潛在變數之選擇模式 73
5-3-1 聯立數值法 73
5-3-2 程序數值法 79
5-4 處理潛在變數與個體異質性之選擇模式 86
5-4-1 聯立數值法 86
5-4-2 程序數值法 89
第六章 結論與建議 91
6-1 結論 91
6-2 建議 94
參考文獻 96
附錄:正式問卷 100
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