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系統識別號 U0026-0806201513291100
論文名稱(中文) ECFA與歐債危機對台灣進出口值之影響
論文名稱(英文) The Effect of ECFA and Euro Debt Crisis on the Export and Import Values of Taiwan
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 國際企業研究所
系所名稱(英) Institute of International Business
學年度 103
學期 2
出版年 104
研究生(中文) 莊百賀
研究生(英文) Pai-Ho Chuang
學號 R66024041
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
論文頁數 63頁
口試委員 指導教授-康信鴻
口試委員-莊雙喜
口試委員-謝惠璟
口試委員-林軒竹
口試委員-廖俊雄
中文關鍵字 ECFA  歐債危機  進出口值  排擠效果 
英文關鍵字 ECFA  Euro debt crisis  Import and export  Crowding-out effect 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本研究主要採用多元迴歸分析檢視於2011年1月1日生效的ECFA(海峽兩岸經濟合作架構協議)對於台灣進出口值之影響,以2008年至2013年之月資料進行分析。由於分析期間涵蓋歐債危機發生期間,因此本研究也將歐債危機納入並進行分析與討論。為觀察兩事件對於台灣不同面向的進出口值影響,本研究除了分析台灣總體進出口值外,亦針對台灣對中國之進出口值進行分析;同時為檢視ECFA的實行對於台灣與主要貿易夥伴的進出口是否存在排擠效果,本研究亦分別針對台灣除中國外前三大進出口貿易夥伴之進出口值進行分析。
本研究將進出口值設為應變數,自變數部分則將ECFA與歐債危機設為虛擬變數。總體經濟相關控制變數為實質有效匯率指數、景氣領先指標,季節因素如中國新年、西方假日季節產生的出貨潮則設為虛擬變數以掌握相關季節因素對於台灣進出口值的影響。實證結果發現ECFA對於台灣總體出口值有顯著之正向影響,然對於總體進口值部分有顯著負向影響。排擠效果部分,ECFA在台灣出口部分並未造成排擠效果,然實證結果顯示ECFA對於台灣自其他除中國外之前三大貿易夥伴在進口部分存在排擠效果。有關歐債危機,實證結果顯示歐債危機整體上對於台灣出口值之負面影響較為顯著,進口值部分則依進口國家而有所差異。
英文摘要 This study applies multiple regression models to examine the effects of ECFA (Cross-Straits Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement), which became effective on Jan 1, 2011, on the export and import values of Taiwan from 2008 to 2013. This study collects monthly data during the period for regression analysis. In order to cover the effects on different aspects of Taiwan export and import values, this study takes monthly overall export and import values of Taiwan and monthly export and import values between Taiwan and China as dependent variables. Euro debt crisis was another mega event that affected international trade during the period, and therefore will be considered and analyzed in this study.
In order to test the crowding-out effect on other top 3 trading partners except China, this study also takes monthly export and import values between Taiwan and other top 3 trading partners as dependent variables for analysis. ECFA and euro debt crisis as the mega events are set as dummy variables. The macroeconomic control variables include real effective exchange rate index and leading indicators while seasonal factors like Chinese New Year and cargo rush for holiday seasons are set as dummy variables. The empirical results show that ECFA has positive effects on the values of export from Taiwan and negative effects on values of overall import and import from top 3 partners except China, which indicates the problem of crowding-out effect. Regarding euro debt crisis, the empirical results show that it has negative effects on the export values of Taiwan, but it does not have significant effects on values of import from some countries.
論文目次 Contents
摘要 I
Abstract II
誌謝 III
Contents IV
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Research Background 1
1.2 Research Motivations and Purposes 2
Chapter 2 Literature Reviews and Research Direction 5
2.1 Regional Integration and Regional Free Trade Agreement 5
2.1.1 Regional Integration under Globalization 5
2.1.2 Regional Integration and Free Trade Agreement 6
2.1.3 The Effects of FTAs on Taiwan 6
2.2 ECFA’s Impacts on Taiwan 8
2.2.1 About ECFA 8
2.2.2 The Effects of ECFA 8
2.3 Impacts of Euro Debt Crisis on International Trade of Taiwan 11
2.4 Research Direction and Expected Contribution 11
Chapter 3 Research Design 14
3.1 Research Methods and Research Process 14
3.1.1 Research Methods 16
3.1.2 Flowchart of Model Modification Process 19
3.2 Research Variables and Data 20
3.2.1 Dependent Variables 20
3.2.2 Independent Variables 20
3.3 Empirical Model 27
3.3.1 The Regression Model for the Export Values of Taiwan 28
3.3.2 The Regression Model for the Import Values of Taiwan 29
Chapter 4 Empirical Results 30
4.1 Empirical Results and Analysis for the Export Values of Taiwan 33
4.1.1 Multicollinearity Test 35
4.1.2 Heteroskedasticity Test 36
4.1.3 Autocorrelation Test 37
4.1.4 Final Regression Models for the Export Values of Taiwan 38
4.2 Empirical Results and Analysis for the Import Values of Taiwan 42
4.2.1 Multicollinearity Test 44
4.2.2 Heteroskedasticity Test 46
4.2.3 Autocorrelation Test 47
4.2.4 Final Regression Models for the Import Values of Taiwan 48
Chapter 5 Conclusion and Suggestion 52
5.1 The Effects of ECFA on International Trade of Taiwan 52
5.1.1 The Effects of ECFA on the Export Values of Taiwan 52
5.1.2 The Effects of ECFA on the Import Values of Taiwan 53
5.2 The Effects of Euro Debt Crisis on International Trade of Taiwan 55
5.2.1 The Effects of Euro Debt Crisis on the Export Values of Taiwan 55
5.2.2 The Effects of Euro Debt Crisis on the Import Values of Taiwan 56
5.3 Interaction Effect of ECFA and Euro Debt Crisis 57
5.3.1 Interaction Effect on Export models 58
5.3.2 Interaction Effect on Import models 58
5.4 Research Limitation 59
5.5 Research Suggestions 59
References 60
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