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系統識別號 U0026-0708201508141500
論文名稱(中文) 「現狀」視角下的區域爭端:基於東亞案例之架構初建
論文名稱(英文) Analyzing Regional Disputes from the “Status Quo” Perspective: a Framework Building on East Asian Setting
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) (不用)政治經濟研究所
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of Political Economy
學年度 103
學期 2
出版年 104
研究生(中文) 萬曉
研究生(英文) Xiao Wan
學號 U16023030
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 182頁
口試委員 指導教授-周志杰
指導教授-王宏仁
口試委員-陳欣之
口試委員-張登及
中文關鍵字 改變現狀  「現狀」架構  爭端情勢  東海爭端  南海爭端 
英文關鍵字 change the status quo  “status quo” framework  dispute tendency  East China Sea  South China Sea 
學科別分類
中文摘要 2012年以來的東海釣魚島爭端與南海主權與資源爭端中,「改變現狀」一詞頻頻出現在有關國家的外交交鋒中,並被與「緊張」和「不穩定」的聯繫起來。
為了探究此直觀連聯繫的準確性,本文採用演繹法,梳理並借鑒涉及「改變現狀」的國際關係理論文獻,建立了以「現狀」為核心分析概念的理論架構。「現狀」架構以權力暨規則兩個內涵面向界定現狀,賦予其「利益分配」的意義並以「利益平衡」作為「最穩定狀態」。在理論推演的過程中,架構提出了以「現狀」為自變量,「爭端情勢」為因變量的假設與備擇假設,並以體系霸權的干涉角色作為條件變量。
東海爭端中的「改變現狀」具有內涵多重、各有損益、幅度偏小、趨向平衡之特點,情勢趨於緩和;南海爭端中的「改變現狀」則內涵單一、單方超越、幅度巨大、背離平衡,情勢日趨緊張。案例分析證明,「改變現狀」與「爭端情勢」之間不存在一般相關,東亞爭端情勢的發展支持了「現狀」架構的一系列設想。
在理論運用方面,「現狀」架構實踐了一種將實務概念追溯到理論再回歸實務的研究路徑,它通過對一系列體系理論抽象概念的聯結與再界定,綜合了內涵與意義、微觀與宏觀、過程與效果雙重視角,有助於對爭端中國家互動與情勢發展進行精細而全面的考察。在政策上,本文提示爭端中的國家更具主動性地操作現狀「改變」,同時爭取贏得霸權對改變的默許,以求在詭譎的國際風雲中維護與擴展利益。
「現狀」架構尚十分粗糙單薄,有待更多的充實與檢驗。
英文摘要 “Change the status quo” is a popular expression during the disputes in East China Sea and South China Sea since 2012 and has been linked to tension and instability. However, this intuitive linkage is neither clear nor empirical. This research tries to conceptualize and operationalize “status quo” through a literature review in the international relations theory, then sets up a framework which offers a dual-perspective based on the concept. The hypothesis are tested back in East Asian cases with the result that there is no general causality between “status quo” and “dispute tendency” and the framework which supports the alternative hypothesis puts forward a reasonable explanation. Deduction, level analysis and case study are used in the process above.
論文目次 摘要 I
誌謝 XI
目錄 XIII
表目錄 XVII
圖目錄 XIX
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 研究目的、問題與範圍 1
一、研究目的 1
二、研究問題 2
三、研究範圍 2
第三節 研究方法 3
一、研究方法 3
(一)演繹法 3
(二)層次分析法 4
(三)質化案例分析 5
二、研究流程與章節安排 7
第四節 研究重要性與限制 8
一、研究重要性 8
二、研究限制 8
第二章 文獻回顧 11
第一節 外交實務中的「改變現狀」 11
第二節 國際關係理論中的「改變現狀」 15
一、古典現實主義 15
二、守勢現實主義 16
三、攻勢現實主義 18
四、霸權理論 19
五、新古典現實主義的利益平衡論 22
六、其它論述 25
第三節 小結 27
第三章 理論架構 31
第一節 分析層次 31
一、東亞爭端研究的識見 31
二、體系理論的脈絡 33
三、區域理論的貢獻與缺失 39
四、小結 43
第二節 「現狀」之內涵:權力與規則 44
一、「現狀」的權力面 45
二、「現狀」的規則面 47
三、權力面與規則面的關聯 49
四、小結 53
第三節 「現狀」之意義:利益分配 54
一、改變意圖源於利益算計 54
二、界定國家利益 55
三、利益平衡的「最穩定狀態」 58
四、小結 62
第四節 假設與操作化 62
一、主體假設:「改變」與「爭端情勢」 63
二、條件變量:體系霸權的角色 64
三、變量操作化與測量 69
(一)從不同內涵面向觀察「改變現狀」 69
(二)從利益分配觀察「改變現狀」 71
四、小結 73
第五節 小結 74
第四章「現狀」視角下的東海爭端 75
第一節 改變前的「現狀」 75
第二節 日本「改變現狀」 79
第三節 中國「改變現狀」 83
一、中國公務船巡航釣魚島 83
二、劃設東海防空識別區 89
第四節 「新現狀」之形塑 99
第五節 美國的角色 102
第六節 小結 104
第五章 「現狀」視角下的南海爭端 109
第一節 南海爭議各方主張 109
一、主要爭端方南海政策 112
(一)中國的南海政策 112
(二)越南的南海政策 115
(三)菲律賓的南海政策 116
二、南海「U形線」問題 117
第二節 改變前的「現狀」 121
一、島礁控制與建設 121
二、油氣資源開發 123
三、政策協調與共識 126
四、小結 128
第三節 進行中的改變 130
一、黃岩島事件 130
二、「981」事件 131
三、菲律賓訴中國仲裁案 133
四、島礁擴建 134
第四節 美國的角色 143
第五節 小結 150
第六章 結論 155
第一節 研究發現 155
第二節 研究貢獻 156
第三節 研究缺陷暨後續建議 157
第四節 東亞爭端中「改變現狀」圖示 159
參考文獻 161
中文部分 161
英文部分 165
網絡資源 175
附錄 179
附錄一 相關國家/地區經濟實力 179
附錄二 相關國家/地區軍事實力 181
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專書論文
Dunne, Tim and Brian C. Schmidt. 2008. “Realism.” in John Baylis, Steve Smith, ed., the Globalization of World Politics: an Introduction to International Relations. Oxford: Oxford University Press. pp. 90-106.
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Katzenstein, Peter J., Robert O. Keohane, Stephen D. Krasner. 1999. “International Organization and the Study of World Politics.” In Peter J. Katzenstein, Robert O. Keohane, Stephen D. Krasner, eds., Exploration and Contestation in the Study of World Politics: A Special Issue of International Organization. The MIT Press. pp. 5-46.
Keohane, Robert O. 1989. “Neoliberal Institutionalism: A Perspective on World Politics.” in Robert O Keohane. International Institutions and State Power: Essays in International Relations Theory. Boulder: Westview Press. pp. 1-20.
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Risse-Kappen, Thomas. 1996. “Collective Identity in a Democratic Community: The Case of NATO.” in Peter Katzenstein ed The Culture of NationalSecurity: Norms and Identity in World Politics. Columbia University Press. pp. 357-399.
Ruggie, John Gerard. 1999. “What Makes the World Hang Together? Neo-Utilitarianism and the Social Constructivist Challenge.” in Peter J. Katzenstein, Robert O. Keohane and Stephen D. Krasner, eds., Exploration and Contestation in the Study of World Politics: A Special Issue of International Organization. The MIT Press. pp. 215-246.
Schweller, Randall L. 1996. “Neorealism's Status- Quo Bias: What Security Dilemma?” in Benjamin Frankel, ed. Realism: Restatements and Renewal. London: Frank Cass. 95-121.
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Walt, Stephen M. 2002. “Keeping the World ‘Off-Balance’: Self-Restraint and U.S. Foreign Policy.” in America Unrivaled. The Future of the Balance of Power, Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. pp. 121-154.
Wohlforth, William C. 1995. “Realism and the End of the Cold War.” in Michael E. Brown, Sean M. Lynn-Jones,and Steven E. Miller eds. The Perils of Anarchy: Contemporary Realism and International Security. Cambridge: MIT Press. pp. 3-41.

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環球網 http://www.huanqiu.com/
中國中央電視台 http://www.cntv.cn/

智庫與研究機構
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Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) http://csis.org/
Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) http://amti.csis.org/
IHS Jane's 360 http://www.janes.com/
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