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系統識別號 U0026-0602201315371600
論文名稱(中文) 合理房價的研究-以新北市為例
論文名稱(英文) The Study of Reasonable Housing Price - A Case of New Taipei City
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 國際經營管理研究所碩士在職專班
系所名稱(英) Institute of International Management (IIMBA--Master)(on the job class)
學年度 101
學期 1
出版年 102
研究生(中文) 洪茂榮
研究生(英文) Mao-Jung Hung
學號 RA7961181
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
論文頁數 21頁
口試委員 口試委員-偉耶倫
口試委員-林信助
指導教授-鄭天澤
中文關鍵字 合理房價  家庭可支配所得 
英文關鍵字 Reasonable housing price  Family disposable income 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本研究在探討新北市房價的合理性,我們觀察1998年到2012年新北市的平均房價,認為2011年的房價可能是不合理的,我們不願意作直覺判斷,希望朝建構數學模型來對房價的合理性作實證研究,經採用複迴歸分析,篩選攸關房價的重要變數,如房租、營建成本指數、家庭可支配所得、股價指數、經濟成長率及國民所得等,來作為模型的自變數,並以2001年至2007年當作為衡量合理房價模型的基礎。實證研究結果,發現新北市2011年的房價為每坪19.86萬元較市價每坪27.48萬元超出約38.39%, 我們又以95%的信賴區間,計算合理房價的範圍,應該在每坪18.79萬元到每坪20.92萬元之間, 顯示2011年市價每坪27.48萬元已超出合理房價範圍,我們也發現2009年可能是不合理房價的第1年。
英文摘要 This research aims to find the rationality of housing prices of New Taipei City. By observing housing price data of New Taipei City from 1998 to 2012, we believe that 2011 is most likely not the first year with unreasonable housing prices. As such, we aim to construct a model to test and verify the rationality of the 2008-2011 housing prices by means of multiple regression analysis. We include rent, the construction cost index, family disposable income, the stock price index, economic growth rate and GNP as independent variables and find 2001-2007 is a benchmark by which reasonable housing prices can be measured. We further find that the reasonable housing price of New Taipei City in 2011 is NT$198,600 per pin (=3.31m2), which is 38.39% lower than the trade housing price of NT$274,800 per pin and we recognized that this trade housing price is unreasonable for its out of the lower NT$187,900 and upper limits NT$209,200 of prediction interval under 95% confidence interval. This study reveals that 2009 is the first year the housing prices become unreasonable.
論文目次 ABSTRACT I
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS II
TABLE OF CONTENTS III
LIST OF TABLES V
LIST OF FIGURES VI
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1
11 Research Background 1
12 Research Motivation 2
13 Research Scope, Question and Constraints 2
14 Research Structure 2
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 4
21 Literature on Reasonable Housing Prices 4
22 Related Literatures on Important Factors Affecting Housing Prices 5
CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 7
31 Research Method Selection 7
32 Multiple Regression Analysis 7
321 Model 7
322 Procedure for Building a Mathematical Model 7
33 Steps for Analyzing the Data 8
CHAPTER FOUR RESEARCH RESULTS 10
41 Data Description 10
42 The Relationships between the Dependent Variable and the Independent
Variables 10
43 Data Adjustment and Merging 11
44 Benchmark for Reasonable Housing Prices 12
45 Scatter Diagrams 13
46 Multiple Regression Analysis 16
CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS 19
REFERENCES 20
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