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系統識別號 U0026-0509201709500500
論文名稱(中文) 探討台灣1999-2015年觀光GDP與觀光碳排放之關係
論文名稱(英文) Examining the relationship between tourism GDP and tourism carbon emissions in Taiwan from 1999-2015
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 交通管理科學系
系所名稱(英) Department of Transportation & Communication Management Science
學年度 105
學期 2
出版年 106
研究生(中文) 謝依靜
研究生(英文) I-Ching Hsieh
學號 R56041075
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
論文頁數 106頁
口試委員 指導教授-孫雅彥
口試委員-廖俊雄
口試委員-林珮珺
中文關鍵字 觀光發展  觀光碳排放  分解分析法  碳排效率 
英文關鍵字 tourism development  tourism CO2  decomposition analysis  eco-efficiency 
學科別分類
中文摘要 隨著與日俱增的國際遊客人數及消費,觀光已成為世界上最大以及成長最快速的經濟部門之一,如何在觀光發展的同時,與其所造成的觀光碳排放汙染兩者間找到平衡,使得觀光產業永續性發展,為一重要課題。本研究首先計算台灣 1999-2015 年觀光碳排放與觀光 GDP,並探討觀光產值與觀光碳排放之關係;接著利用分解分析法探討消費結構、生產技術以及消費金額對台灣整體觀光碳排放量所產生的影響; 最後並利用分解分析法探討台灣觀光碳排效率的變動原因,並與全國碳排放效率比較,找出觀光部門可改善之部分。研究結果總結如下:
1. 國際遊客來臺觀光族群,當人均觀光 GDP 增加 1000 元,人均觀光碳排放會增加10.3 公斤;國人國內旅遊族群,當人均觀光 GDP 增加 1000 元,人均觀光碳排放會增加 19.3 公斤;國人出國旅遊族群出國前後在台消費,當人均觀光 GDP 增加1000 元,人均觀光碳排放會增加 97.4 公斤
2. 觀光消費的增加為導致觀光碳排放增加的主要因素 (增加 919 萬噸),其次觀光消費偏好對碳排無太大影響 (增加 13 萬噸),而技術進步為主要使觀光碳排放下降之原因 (減少 186 萬噸)。總體而言,減排技術雖持續進步,但進步速度不足以承受觀光消費的增加速度,因此台灣觀光碳排放 2000-2015 年仍然在上升,以每年4.4%速度在增加。
3. 在 2000 年時,觀光產業每一元 GDP 所產生的碳排放為全國平均的 2.2 倍,然而至 2015 年時,每 GDP 產生的碳排放為全國平均的 3.3 倍,顯示出,若以目前方式繼續發展觀光產業,每單位觀光 GDP 所產生的碳排放會加劇並且不利於全國減碳目標。
英文摘要 While tourism development brings enormous positive economic impact for a country, it also generates increasing environmental pollutions such as carbon dioxide emissions. How to keep the balance between tourism development and tourism carbon emissions is an important issue. Therefore, the research aims to explore the relationship between tourism GDP and tourism carbon emissions through decomposition analysis to catch the dynamic change in the period from 1999-2015 in Taiwan. In addition, the research also compares a decomposes the eco-efficiency indicator of tourism and national average sector in Taiwan for policy making. The results are as follows:
1) For inbound tourists, for every NT$1000 of visitor spending, there is an increase CO2
per capita of 10.3 kg The similar result for domestic tourists and outbound tourists are 19.3 and 97.4 kg CO2 per capita grows, respectively.
2) In terms of the decomposition analysis, tourism CO2 shows that, in the period of 2000-2015, final demand effect is the main contributor to increase CO2 (increase 919 tons)
followed by the structure effect (increase 13 tons), and the intensity effect is the main factor to counter CO2 growth. Overall, the speed of technology improvement is not fast enough to suppress the tourism consumption growth. As a result, tourism CO2 is increasing with annual growth rate 4.4% in 2000-2015.
3) Tourism eco efficiency is 2.2 times of the national average in 2000. However, it grows to 3.3 times in 2015. It indicates that if we continue to develop and consume tourism as the way it is, the carbon emissions per dollar GDP will aggravate.
論文目次 Chapter1 Introduction 1
1.1 Research Background 1
1.2 Research Motivation 2
1.3 Research Objectives 4
1.4 Research Contribution 5
1.5 Research Process 5
Chapter 2 Literature Review 7
2.1 Current Situation of the Tourism Industry in Taiwan 7
2.1.1 Critical Tourism Events and Policies in Taiwan (2000-2015) 7
2.1.2 Tourism Expenditure in Taiwan 9
2.2 Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis 11
2.3 Tourism-related EKC Hypothesis Literature Reviews 14
2.3.1 Time Series Analysis and Panel Data Analysis 17
2.3.2 Economic Development as Variable 17
2.3.3 Tourism Development as Variable 17
2.3.4 Environmental Pollution as Variable 17
2.3.5 Other Variables 18
2.3.6 The Results of Different EKC Hypotheses 18
2.3.7 Summary 19
2.4 Econometric Problems with the EKC Model 20
2.4.1 Heteroscedasticity 21
2.4.2 Endogeneity 21
2.4.3 Co-integration 22
2.5 Decomposition Analysis 23
2.6 The Method of Evaluating Tourism CO2-Top-down Method 27
Chapter 3 Methodology 33
3.1 Data Collection 33
3.2 The Method of Evaluating Tourism Carbon Emission 33
3.2.1 The Scope of Research 35
3.2.2 The Establishment of TSA in 2014 and 2015 37
3.2.3 The Evaluation of Tourism Expenditure in Sub Sectors 37
3.2.4 The Evaluation of Carbon Intensity 39
3.3 Regression Analysis 43
3.3.1 Simple Regression Analysis 43
3.4 Decomposition Analysis 45
Chapter 4 Research Results 48
4.1 Tourism Carbon Emissions in Taiwan 48
4.2 Regression Analysis 57
4.2.1 Descriptive Statistics 57
4.2.2 Regression Analysis 58
4.3 Decomposition Analysis 80
4.3.1 Tourism Carbon Emissions 80
4.3.2 Scenarios 82
4.3.3 Carbon Efficiency 85
Chapter 5 Conclusions and Discussions 95
5.1 Conclusions 95
5.2 Discussions 97
5.3 Research Contribution 99
5.4 Limitations 99
References 100
APPENDIX I: Own-estimated Tourism Satellite Account in 2014 105
APPENDIX II: Own-estimated Tourism Satellite Account in 2015 106

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