進階搜尋


下載電子全文  
系統識別號 U0026-0409201016575300
論文名稱(中文) 捷運系統提升運量策略之研究-以高雄捷運為例
論文名稱(英文) Transit Ridership Lifting Strategies: Case Study of Kaohsiung MRT System
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 交通管理學系碩博士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Transportation & Communication Management Science
學年度 98
學期 2
出版年 99
研究生(中文) 林芫名
研究生(英文) Yuan-Ming Lin
學號 r5697106
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 173頁
口試委員 指導教授-鄭永祥
口試委員-張有恆
口試委員-葉中興
口試委員-徐村和
口試委員-蕭傑諭
中文關鍵字 提升運量  SWOT分析  策略鑽石理論  TOWS矩陣  模糊網路分析程序法 
英文關鍵字 ridership lifting  SWOT Analysis  Strategy Diamond  TOWS matrix  Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (FANP) 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本研究提出一套簡單檢視影響因素之方法,相較於過去文獻多以回顧文獻方式提出影響因素,進而建構模式以驗證因素之確立性,本研究以檢視總體面環境方式提出影響因素,並從中擬訂出提升運量策略以進行分析。
高雄捷運自97年9月雙線正式營運至今僅屆滿2年,但其日平均運量卻僅12萬人次,與原規劃興建捷運所預估之每日36萬人次運量差異甚大,更離損益平衡的44萬人次運量相差甚遠。追究其原因在於捷運幹線與接駁路網的可及性不足,且加上高雄地區民風特性使然,造成捷運運量遲遲不見好轉,進而造成高雄捷運持續虧損,財務陷入危機;因此找出影響高雄捷運運量之因素並擬訂策略提升高雄捷運的運量顯得格外重要。
本研究藉由高雄捷運之SWOT分析擬訂影響運量因素,透過專家問卷方式以模糊德爾菲法篩選影響因素,確立高雄捷運影響運量之評估準則,再使用策略鑽石理論與TOWS矩陣分析提出長短期提升運量策略,最後結合模糊網路分析程序法(Fuzzy Analytic Network Process),並得到專家對評估準則與長短期提升運量策略之權重排序。
根據研究結果,共篩選出15項評估準則,而整體專家對準則重要性排序前五項依序為「民眾高度倚賴機車代步」、「政府支持大眾運輸發展」、「政策管制私人運具」、「優質運輸服務」及「捷運幹線可及性受限」,而長短期策略最重要者分別為「重新規劃整體大眾運輸路網結構」與「整合大眾運輸轉乘功能」;透過專家分群分析則可發現,專家依不同領域角度檢視評估準則與策略有部分差異性存在。本研究分析結果可提供給相關單位做為未來策略擬訂與修改之參考。
英文摘要 This research proposes a simple way to identify the key factors influencing operations of organizations. Compared with literatures which verify their factors by reviewing past researches, this research proposes key factors from the aggregate environmental perspective, and develops ridership promotion strategies for further analysis.
Kaohsiung mass rapid transit (MRT) system, which consists of red and orange lines, has operated for two years since September, 2008. It carries only about 120 thousand people per day, which is still far away from the expected volume of 360 thousand people, let alone the breakeven level of 440 thousand. Because of the accessibility of the main lines, insufficiency of its shuttle bus network, and comparatively low utilization of public transportation systems in Kaohsiung, the ridership of Kaohsiung MRT system has no significant improvement. Such situation causes continuing loss and makes KRTC fall into a financial crisis.
This research use SWOT analysis to investigate the factors affecting ridership, and then pick up the crucial ones by fuzzy Delphi from those factors through expert questionnaire to confirm the criteria. Recommended ridership promotion strategies from both short-run and long-run perspectives are made through strategy diamond and TOWS matrix. Furthermore, by analyzing with Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (FANP), we can obtain the weight and order of each criterion and strategy from different experts.
The result indicates that there are 15 criteria picked out by experts. Experts has defined 5 criteria which are most significant by the order of “people depend heavily on motorbike,” “government supports development of public transit,” “policy of controlling private vehicles,” “high quality of transportation service,” and “insufficient accessibility of MRT system.” The most important strategies are “re-planning the whole network of public transit” for long-run, and “coordination of transfer between public transit systems” for short-run. According to clustering analysis, the result indicates that some differences in criteria and strategies exist in different groups. The result can be provided for related authorities for improving and planning strategies in the future.
論文目次 摘要 I
ABSTRACT II
誌 謝 IV
目錄 VI
表目錄 VIII
圖目錄 X
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機 1
1.2 研究目的 3
1.3 研究方法 3
1.4 研究流程架構 4
第二章 文獻探討 7
2.1 高雄捷運營運概況 7
2.1.1 高雄地區民眾旅次特性 8
2.1.2 小結 13
2.2 旅客運具選擇行為 13
2.2.1 消費者選擇行為 14
2.2.2 旅客運具選擇模式 17
2.2.3 小結 20
2.3 大眾運輸系統提升運量之相關文獻 20
2.3.1 服務品質 20
2.3.2 市場行銷 22
2.3.3 票價制定 23
2.3.4 路網接駁可及性 24
2.3.5 政府措施 25
2.3.6 公司營運體制 26
2.4 小結 26
第三章 研究方法 29
3.1 SWOT分析法之應用 30
3.1.1 SWOT分析之觀念 30
3.1.2 SWOT分析之步驟與方法 31
3.1.3 TOWS矩陣 34
3.1.4 策略鑽石理論(Strategy Diamond) 36
3.2 模糊德爾菲法(FUZZY DELPHI METHOD) 37
3.3 模糊網路分析程序法(FUZZY ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS) 38
3.3.1 網路分析程序法(ANP)介紹 38
3.3.2 模糊網路分析程序法 45
第四章 高雄捷運內外部環境分析 51
4.1 高雄捷運內外部環境分析 51
4.2 高雄捷運提升運量之準則篩選 62
4.3 高雄捷運提升運量之準則選定 67
4.4 高雄捷運提升運量策略研擬 71
4.4.1 策略研擬 71
4.4.2 提升運量策略之TOW矩陣分析 72
4.5 修改後準則與策略之操作型定義 76
第五章 實證分析 85
5.1 高雄捷運提升運量評估準則之內部相依關係 85
5.2 權重模糊化與解模糊化 88
5.2.1 成對比較矩陣 89
5.2.2 模糊成對比較矩陣 90
5.2.3 解模糊化(Defuzzifiaction) 92
5.2.4 建構超矩陣(Super-matrix) 93
5.3 選擇最適策略 100
5.4 相關性與敏感度分析 105
5.4.1 相關係數意涵 105
5.4.2 敏感度分析 108
5.4.3 小結 111
5.5 專家分群分析 113
5.5.1 產業界 113
5.5.2 政府部門 115
5.5.3 學術界 117
5.5.4 小結 119
第六章 結論與建議 121
6.1 結論 121
6.2 建議 125
6.3 研究與實務貢獻 125
6.4 後續研究方向 126
參考文獻 127
附錄一 133
附錄二 143
參考文獻 中文
1.方至民、鍾憲瑞(2006),《策略管理:建立企業永續競爭力》,初版,台北:前程文化。
2.吳雅婷(2009),國內線機場營運發展策略探討,碩士論文,國立成功大學交通管理科學系所。
3.高雄捷運公司,http://www.krtco.com.tw
4.張有恆、蘇昭旭(2002),現代運輸學,人人出版。
5.張魁峰(2009),Super Decisions軟體操作手冊-以ANP突破AHP的研究限制,鼎茂出版。
6.張學孔(2003),大眾運輸場站容積獎勵機制之研究,行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫成果報告。
7.張學孔(2006),再論永續大眾運輸發展政策,中華民國運輸學會運輸人通訊,第五十三期。
8.陳良男(2005),人壽保險行銷通路偏好研究-以台南區域為例,碩士論文,高雄第一科技大學金融營運系。
9.黃運貴、黃新薰、張芳旭、朱珮芸、張益城、楊智凱、蔣敏玲、陳國岳、林忠欽、柯怡安(2009),永續運輸發展政策下智慧型運輸系統(ITS)推動策略之研究,中華民國運輸學會論文。
10.蔡桂君(2009),重大公共建設個別計畫與配套計畫之比較分析,碩士論文,成功大學都市計畫研究所。
11.蔡翔証(2007),中華職棒大聯盟現場觀賞潛在顧客未消費行為導因之研究,台灣體育運動管理學報,第五期,頁277~297。
12.鄭啟瑞(2003),台灣高鐵通車後國內航空公司經營策略之研究,碩士論文,長榮大學經營管理研究所。
13.鄭涵聖(2005),應用分析網路程序法評選先進規劃與排程系統之研究,碩士論文,南台科技大學企業管理研究所。
14.鄭滄濱(2001),軟體組織提昇人員能力之成熟度模糊評估模式,碩士論文,台灣科技大學資訊管理研究所。
15.賴文泰、呂錦隆(2008),應用涉入理論於運具選擇行為之研究,運輸計劃季刊,第三十七卷第二期,頁237 ~262。
16.魏啟林(1993),《策略行銷》,初版,台北:時報。
17.蘇昭維(2002),多種土地使用型態下停車需求與供給之分析-以台中市西區為例,碩士論文,逢甲大學交通工程與管理學系。

英文
1.Agarwal, A., Shankar, R., Tiwari, M.K., 2006. “Modeling the metrics of lean, agile and leagile supply chain: An ANP-based approach.” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 173, No. 1, pp. 211-225.
2.Anable, J., Gatersleben, B., 2005. “All work and no play? The role of instrumental and affective factors in work and leisure journeys by different travel modes.” Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 39, No. 2–3, pp. 97–123.
3.Badami, M. G., Haider, M., 2007. “An Analysis of Public Bus Transit Performance in Indian Cities.” Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 41, No. 10, pp. 961–981.
4.Bagozzi, R.P., Warshaw, P.R., 1999. “Trying to consumer.” Journal of Consumer Research, Vol. 17, No. 2, pp. 127-140.
5.Bamberg, S., Rolle, D., Weber, C., 2003. “Does habitual car use not lead to more resistance to change of travel mode?” Transportation, Vol. 30, No. 1, pp. 97–108.
6.Ben-Akiva, M., McFadden, D., Ga¨rling, T., Gopinath, D., Walker, J., Bolduc, D., Bo¨rsch-Supan, A., Delquie′, P., Larichev, O., Morikawa, T., Polydoropoulou, A., Rao, V., 1999. “Extended framework for modeling choice behavior.” Marketing Letters, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 187–203.
7.Bianco, M. J., 2000.” Effective Transportation Demand Management: Combining Parking Pricing, Transit Incentives, and Transportation Management in a Commercial District of Portland, Oregon.” Transportation Research Record, No. 1711, pp.46-54.
8.Black, W.R., 1996. “Sustainable transportation: a US perspective.” Journal of transport geography, Vol. 4, No. 3, pp.151-159.
9.Bonnel, P., 1995. “Urban car policy in Europe.” Transport Policy, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 83-95.
10.Brons, M., Givoni, M., Rietveld, P., 2009. “Access to railway stations and its potential increasing rail use.” Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 43, No. 2, pp. 136-149.
11.Burgelman, R.A., Siegel, R.E., 2008. “Cutting the Strategy Diamond in High-Technology Ventures.” California Management Review, Vol. 50, No. 3, pp. 141-166.
12.Chang H. L., Wu, S. C., 2008. “ Exploring the vehicle dependence behind mode choice : Evidence of motorcycle dependence in Taipei.” Transportation Part A, Vol. 42, No. 2, pp. 307-320.
13.Chen, C. F., 2008. “Investigating structural relationships between service quality, perceived value, satisfaction, and behavioral intentions for air passengers: Evidence from Taiwan.” Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 42, No. 4, pp.709–717.
14.Chen, X., Yu, L., Zhang, Y., Guo, J., 2009. “Analysis urban bus service reliability at the stop, route, and network levels.” Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 43, No. 8, pp.722–734.
15.Chung, H.J., Chen, C.S., Fan, L.J., Ho, C.Y., 2006. “Enhancement of Power System Operation for Taipei MRT Network.” International Conference on Power System Technology, pp. 1-7.
16.Chung, H.J., Chen, C.S., Lin, C.H., 2005. “Optimization of inverter placement for mass rapid transit systems using genetic algorithm.” IEEE/PES Transmission and Distribution Conference & Exhibition: Asia and Pacific Dalin, China, pp. 1-6.
17.Collins, C.M., Chambers, S.M., 2005. “Psychological and situational influences on commuter–transport-mode choice.” Environment and Behavior, Vol. 37, No. 5, pp. 640–661.
18.Dincer, O., 2004. “Strategy Management and Organization Policy.” Beta Publication, Istanbul.
19.Dyson, R. G., 2004. “Strategic development and SWOT analysis at the University of Warwick.” European Journal of Operation Research, Vol. 152, No. 3, pp. 631-640.
20.Estupinan, N., Rodriguez, D. A., 2008. “The relationship between urban form and station boardings for Bogota‘s BRT.” Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 42, No. 2, pp. 296–306.
21.Fred, R. D., 1986. “Fundamentals of Strategic Management.” Merrill Publishing.
22.Fred, R. D., 1999. “Strategic Management, 7th ed.”, Prentice-Hall, New Jersey.
23.Gorin, T., Belobaba, P., 2008. “Assessing predation in airline markets with low-fare competition.” Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 42, No. 5, pp.784–798.
24.Götz, K., Loose, W., Schmied, M., Schubert, S., 2003. “Mobility styles in leisure time.” In: Lucerne: Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Travel Behaviour Research.
25.Guihaire, V., Hao, J.K., 2008. “Transit Network Design and Scheduling: a Global Review.” Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 42, No. 10, pp. 1251-1273.
26.Hensher, D. A., Prioni, P., 2002. “A Service Quality Index for Area-wide Contract Performance Assessment.” Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Vol, 36, Part1, pp. 93-113.
27.Hess, D. B., 2001. “Effect of Free Parking on Commuter Mode Choice: Evidence fromTravel Diary Data.” Transportation Research Record, Vol. 1753, pp.35-42.
28.Horner, M.W., 2004. “Spatial dimensions of urban commuting: a review of major issues and their implications for future geographic research.” Professional Geographer, Vol. 56, No. 2, pp. 160–173.
29.Ibrahim, M.F., 2003. “Improvements and integration of a public transport system: the case of Singapore.” Cities, Vol. 20, No. 3, pp. 205-216.
30.Ishikawa A., Amagasa M. etc. 1993, “The Max-Min Delphi Method and Fuzzy Delphi Method via Fuzzy Integration. “Fuzzy Sets and System, Vol.5, No. 3, pp. 241-253.
31.Jharkharia, S. and Shankar, R., 2007. “Selection of logistics service provider: An analytic network process (ANP) approach.” Omega, Vol. 35, No. 3, pp. 274-289.
32.Kain, J.F., Liu, Z., 1999. “Secrets of success: assessing the large increases in transit ridership achieved by Houston and San Diego transit provides.” Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 33, No. 7-8, pp. 601-624.
33.Kepaptsoglou, K., Karlaftis, M., 2009. “Transit Route Network Design Problem: Review.” Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 135, No. 8, pp. 491- 505.
34.Kinosita, E., 2003. “From AHP to ANP.” Operations Research of Japan, Vol. 48, No. 9, pp. 677-683.
35.Kong, E., 2008. “The development of strategic management in the non-profit context: Intellectual capital in social service non-profit organizations.” International Journal of Management Reviews, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 281-299.
36.Kotler, P., 1998. Marketing Management:Analysis, Planning, Implementation and Control, 9th ed. Prentice-Hall Inc.
37.Krumdieck, S., Page S., Dantas, A., 2010. “Urban form and long-term fuel supply decline: A method to investigate the peak oil risks to essential actives.” Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 44, No. 5, pp. 306-322.
38.Lee, A.H.I., Hsu, C.F., Hung, H.C., 2009. “A green supplier selection model for high-tech industry.” Expert System with Application, Vol. 36, No. 4, pp. 7917-7927.
39.Maat, K., Timmermans, H. J. P., 2009. “Influence of the residential and work environment on car use in dual-earner households.” Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 43, No. 7, pp. 654-664.
40.Martijn, B., Moshe, G., Piet, R., 2009 “Access to railway stations and its potential in increasing rail use.” Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 43, No. 2, pp.136-149.
41.Modarres, A., 2003. “Polycentricity and transit service.” Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 37, No. 10, pp. 841-864.
42.Nathanail, E., 2008. “Measuring the quality of service for passengers on the hellenic railways.” Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 42, No. 1, pp.48–66.
43.Noland, R.B., Cowart, W.A., Fulton, L.M., 2006. “Travel demand policies for saving oil during a supply emergency.” Energy policy, Vol. 34, No. 17, pp. 2994-3005.
44.Ottoz, E., Fornengo, G., Giacomo, M.D., 2009. “The impact of ownership on the cost of bus service provision: an example from Italy.” Applies Economics, Vol, 41, No. 3, pp.337-349.
45.Palma, A., Rochat, D., 2000. “Mode Choice for Trips to Work in Geneva: an EmpiricalAnalysis.” Journal of Transport Geography, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 43-51.
46.Parasuraman, A., 1997. “Reflections on gaining competitive advantage through customer value.”Academy of Marketing Science.” Journal Greenvale, Vol. 25, No. 2, pp. 154-161.
47.Preston, J., 2008. “Competition in transit markets.” Research in Transportation Economics, Vol. 23, No, 1, 2008, p.p. 75-84.
48.Rajé, F., 2007. “Using Q methodology to develop more perceptive insights on transport and social inclusion.” Transport Policy, Vol. 14, No. 6, pp. 467–477.
49.Saaty T.L., 1996. “Decision Making With Dependence and Feedback - The Analytic Network Process.” RWS Publication.
50.Saaty, T. L. 1999. “Fundamentals of the Analytic Network Process.” Kobe: ISAHP.
51.Saaty, T. L., 2003. “Decision Making In Complex Environments: A Tutorial for the SuperDecisions Software.” Creative Decisions Foundation.
52.Salon D., 2009. “Neighborhoods, cars, and commuting in New York City: A discrete choice approach.” Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 43, No. 2, pp. 180-196.
53.Schlich, R., 2003. “Homogenous groups of travellers.” In: Lucerne: Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Travel Behaviour Research..
54.Shen, Q., Chen, Q., Tang, B.S., Yeung, S., Hu, Y., and Cheung, G., 2009. “A System Dynamics Model for the Sustainable Land Use Planning and Development.” Habitat International, Vol. 33, No. 1, pp. 15–25.
55.Shiftan, Y., Outwater, M. L., Zhou, Y., 2008. “Transit market research using structural equation modeling and attitudinal market segmentation.” Transport Policy, Vol. 15, No. 3, p.p. 186-195.
56.Tang, S., Lo, H. K., 2008. “The impact of public transport policy on the viability and sustainability of mass railway transit –The Hong Kong experience.” Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 42, No. 4, pp. 563–576.
57.Taylor, B. D., Miller, D., Iseki, H., Fink, C., 2009. “Nature and/or nurture? Analyzing the determinants of transit ridership across US urbanized areas.” Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp.60–77.
58.Tovar, B., Martin-Cejas, R. R., 2009. “Are Outsourcing and Non-Aeronautical Revenues Important Drivers in the Efficiency of Spanish Airports?” Journal of Air Transport Management, Vol. 15, No. 5, pp. 217-220.
59.Tsamboulas, D.A., 2006. “Assessing Performance under Regulatory Evolution: A European Transit System Perspective.” Journal of Urban Planning and Development, Vol. 132, No. 4, pp. 226-234.
60.Tuzkaya, U.R., Önűt, S., 2008. “A fuzzy analytic network process based approach to transportation-mode selection between Turkey and Germany: A case study.” Information Sciences, Vol. 178, No. 15, pp. 3133-3146.
61.Tyrinopoulos, Y., Antoniou, C., 2008. “Public transit user satisfaction: Variability and policy implications.” Transport Policy, Vol. 15, No. 4, pp. 260-272.
62.Ubillos, J.B., Sainz, A.F., 2004. “The influence of quality and price on the demand for urban transport: the case of university students.” Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 38, No. 8, pp. 607-614.
63.Van Exel, N. J. A. and Rietveld P., 2007. “Could you also have made this trip by another mode? An investigation of perceived travel possibilities of car and train travelers on the main travel corridors to the city of Amsterdam, The Netherlands.” Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 43, No. 4, pp.374-385.
64.Van Houts, P., 1996, “The SWOT Analysis: Another Planning Tool for Emergency Management.” Australian Journal of Emergency Management, Vol. 11, No. 3, pp.20-22.
65.Vredin Johansson, M., Heldt, T., Johansson, P., 2006. “The effects of attitudes and personality traits on mode choice.” Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 40, No. 6, pp. 507–525.
66.Weihrich, H., 1982. “The TOWS Matrix: A Tool for Situational Analysis.” Long Range Planning, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 54-66
67.Whitelegg, J., 1993. “Transport for a sustainable future – the cost for Europe”, Belhaven Press London and New York.
68.Wu, W.W., and Lee, Y.T., 2007. “Selecting knowledge management strategies by using the analytic network process.” Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp.841-847.
69.Xumei, C., Yu, L., Zhang, Y., Guo, J., 2009. “Analyzing urban bus service reliability at the stop, route, and network levels.” Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 43, No, 8, pp.722–734.
70.Yűksel, İ., Dağdeviren, M., 2007. “Using the analytical network process (ANP) in a SWOT analysis – A case study for a textile firm.” Information Sciences, Vol. 177, No. 16, pp. 3364-3382.
71.Zaerpour, N., Rabbani, M., Gharehgozli, A.H., 2007. “A Novel Multi Criteria Decision Making Framework for Production Strategy Adoption Considering Interrelations.” Operations Research Proceedings, Springer Berlin Heidelberg published, pp. 497-502.
72.Zhu X., Liu S., 2004. “Analysis of the impact of the MRT system on accessibility in Singapore using an integrated GIS tool.” Journal of Transport Geography, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp.89-101.
論文全文使用權限
  • 同意授權校內瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,於2013-09-07起公開。
  • 同意授權校外瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,於2013-09-07起公開。


  • 如您有疑問,請聯絡圖書館
    聯絡電話:(06)2757575#65773
    聯絡E-mail:etds@email.ncku.edu.tw