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系統識別號 U0026-0407201917120800
論文名稱(中文) 固網寬頻普及率對行動寬頻普及率之擴散效果
論文名稱(英文) The Spillover Effect of Fixed Broadband Penetration Rate on the Mobile Broadband Penetration Rate
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 電信管理研究所
系所名稱(英) Institute of Telecommunications and Management
學年度 107
學期 2
出版年 108
研究生(中文) 孫世芸
研究生(英文) Shi-Yun Sun
學號 R96061057
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 94頁
口試委員 指導教授-林珮珺
共同指導教授-黃郁雯
口試委員-陳文字
口試委員-高凱聲
中文關鍵字 行動寬頻普及率  固網寬頻普及率  電信業者投資  空間統計  空間計量經濟模型  空間擴散效果 
英文關鍵字 Mobile Penetration Rate  Fixed Broadband Penetration Rate  Telecommunication Investment  Spatial Statistic  Spatial Econometrics  Spatial spillover Effect 
學科別分類
中文摘要 寬頻網路對於現在的總體環境變得不可或缺,也是各個國家不斷發展追求的網路技術,寬頻網路普及率是衡量一國家寬頻發展程度的重要指標,本研究將行動寬頻普及率作為主要分析對象。許多國家已經擁有超過100%的行動寬頻普及率,固網寬頻普及率也達到了48%,在市場已經飽和的狀況下繼續發展寬頻市場,容易造成電信業者或營運商收益無法提高,但是也有許多國家是處於行動寬頻普及率相對較低的狀態,例如:南美洲、非洲、東南亞等,國際電信聯盟(ITU)認定其中一些國家為「有潛力的未開發市場」,因此本研究認為若在擁有高行動、固網寬頻普及率國家的電信業者,可以投資於國外市場,以創造營收來源。本研究將利用空間統計、空間計量經濟模型以及空間擴散效果,計算出影響各國家的因素以及各因素的影響權重,分析出較容易受到其他國家影響而提高行動寬頻普及率的國家,即為較適合投資之國家,期望能夠提供電信業者投資海外寬頻市場的依據。
英文摘要 This research objects are exploring whether the mobile broadband penetration rate has spatial dependence in global geographical and use the fixed broadband penetration rate to verify the correlation with mobile broadband penetration rate and abroad market. Broadband internet becomes indispensable to the present environment, also every country's development goal and the essential index that evaluate country development level. Mobile broadband penetration rate had more than 100% in many countries, fixed broadband penetration rate also reached 48%, in these saturated markets, operators’ revenue will be limited. However, there are many developing countries, such as: South America, Africa and South America etc., the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) has identified some of these countries as "undeveloped markets with potential”. This research believes if countries that have high broadband penetration rate can invest abroad telecommunication industry, crate another business model and revenue. In order to explore relationship of telecommunication market between countries, this research will use spatial statistic, spatial econometrics and spatial spillover effect to calculate the impact factors’ level and impact weight. According to the research result. Countries more suitable for investment are more likely to be affected by other countries and increase the penetration rate of mobile broadband. Expecting the results of this study will provide investment advice for telecommunication operators to invest in the overseas broadband market.
論文目次 摘要 i
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景 1
1.2 研究動機 14
1.3 研究目的 15
1.4 研究範圍 15
1.5 研究架構 16
第二章 文獻回顧 18
2.1 寬頻普及率(Broadband Penetration Rate) 18
2.1.1 固網寬頻普及率(Fixed Broadband Penetration Rate) 18
2.1.2 行動寬頻普及率(Mobile Broadband Penetration Rate) 20
2.1.3 固網寬頻普及率與行動寬頻普及率之關聯性 21
2.1.4 投資電信產業之效益(Effect of Investing on Telecommunication Industry) 22
2.3 空間分析(Spatial Analysis) 24
2.4.1地理資訊系統(Geographic Information System, GIS) 24
2.4.2 空間統計學(Spatial Statistics) 25
2.4.3 空間自相關分析(Spatial Autocorrelation) 26
2.4.4 空間計量經濟學(Spatial Econometrics) 28
2.4.5 空間擴散效果(Spatial Spillover Effect) 29
第三章 研究方法 31
3.1 研究資料 31
3.2 普通最小平方回歸 32
3.3 空間資料分析(Spatial Data Analysis) 34
3.3.1 全域型空間自相關(Global Spatial Autocorrelation) 34
3.3.2 區域空間自相關(Local Spatial Autocorrelation) 38
3.4 空間權重矩陣(Spatial Weights Matrix) 41
3.4.1 選定國家之鄰近的國家數量權重矩陣 41
3.4.2 有簽訂電信協定之國家 42
3.5 空間計量經濟模型(Spatial Econometrics Models) 42
3.5.1 空間落遲模型(Spatial Lag Model) 43
3.5.2 空間Durbin模型(Spatial Durbin Model) 45
3.5.3 模型配適度檢定指標 47
3.6 空間擴散效果與乘數效應 48
第四章 研究結果分析 50
4.1 普通最小平方迴歸之分析結果 50
4.2 空間自相關分析結果 52
4.2.1 全域型空間自相關分析 53
4.2.2 區域型空間自相關分析 56
4.3 空間計量經濟模型分析結果 62
4.3.1 空間落遲模型之分析結果 63
4.3.2 空間自變數落遲模型之分析結果 65
4.3.3 空間Durbin模型之分析結果 67
4.3.4 模型配適度檢定 71
4.4 空間擴散效果與乘數之分析結果 72
第五章 研究結論與建議 78
5.1 空間自相關分析 80
5.1.1 全域型空間自相關分析 80
5.1.2 區域型空間自相關分析 81
5.2 空間計量經濟分析 82
5.2.1 空間落遲模型 82
5.2.2 空間自變數落遲模型 83
5.2.3 空間Durbin模型 84
5.3 空間擴散效果與空間乘數 85
5.4 研究貢獻 86
5.4.1 學術貢獻 86
5.4.2 實務貢獻 87
5.4 研究限制與未來研究方向 88
5.4.1 研究限制 88
5.4.2 未來研究方向 89
參考文獻 91
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