||Integrated Analysis of Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions, and Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment for the Electricity Sector in Thailand
||Department of Environmental Engineering
Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment
Electricity is the basic need of most economic sectors within a national economy. The electricity generation not only directly affects the amount of CO2 emissions, but also indirectly affects a country’s economic system. Besides, the electric power industry is one of the energy consumptive sources in Thailand. The electricity demand in Thailand has increased along the population growth, with the average annual increase 5% during 2000 to 2015. Furthermore, with the share of 42% of CO2 emissions in 2015, the electricity generation sector is the main contributor to CO2 emissions in Thailand. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the relationship between energy consumption and CO2 emissions from the thermal power sector that are caused by the economic development by decoupling analysis. Then, the decomposition analysis is used to identify the critical factors affecting the variation of CO2 emissions from the thermal power sector. The Input-Output Analysis (IOA) was adopted to evaluate the industry linkage effects of the electricity generation sector with other industry based on the input-output table. Besides, the direct and indirect effects of energy consumption and CO2 emissions were quantify through multiplier analysis. Finally, the Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (IO-LCA) was employed to estimate the potential global warming and other environmental impacts from the electricity generation and related industry. Two impact assessment models adopted from Sima Pro 7.3.3 to analyze environmental impacts.
According to the trend analysis, energy consumption and CO2 emissions from thermal power sector significantly increased from 2000 to 2015. Results from the decoupling analysis reveal that energy consumption and CO2 emission experienced a coupling effect during 2000-2005, and 2000-2003, respectively. On the other hand, the decoupling of energy consumption and CO2 emissions occurred in the period of 2006-2015 and 2004-2015, respectively. Regarding to the decomposition analysis, economic growth was the key factor that leads the increase of CO2 emissions (58,749 tons) during 2000-2015. Moreover, the result of linkage effect analysis show that the electricity generation sector significantly influenced other industries, but it was weak in promoting other industries’ output. The electricity generation and gas service sector was the highest total energy intensive and highest CO2 intensive source among 19 sectors from the IO table in 2000, 2005 and 2010 years. Besides, the total indirect energy intensity from 19 sectors were 50%, 48% and 53% in 2000, 2005, and 2010, respectively, while the total indirect CO2 intensity in 2000, 2005, and 2010 were 49%, 47% and 52%, respectively. Importantly, the huge indirect energy intensity and CO2 intensity in construction, machinery, wholesale trade, services, textile and leather, and food and tobacco sectors played a significant role in Thailand’s industry, which should not be overlooked.
Finally, the normalization results from IMPACT 2002+ and Eco-indicator 99 demonstrate that the resources were the most significant environmental damage, followed by human health over three years. The cumulative of normalized impact values from both methods revealed that global warming, non-renewable energy and respiratory inorganics were the major environmental impacts from the Thai’s electricity generation sector. Results of direct and indirect effects revealed that the electricity generation sector has the highest direct impact to climate change, followed by the human heath effect in 2000, 2005 and 2010. In contrast, the ecosystem quality and resources impacts mainly resulted from indirect effect caused by other relevant sectors in three years. Additionally, the IMPACT 2002+ is more applicable than Eco-indicator 99 for analyzing the potential environmental impacts from the electricity generation sector.
In addition, the results of our study some suggestions can be made to the current policy in Thailand. The decoupling of energy consumption and CO2 emissions from the electricity generation sector should experience an absolute decoupling. The government should also focus the shift of economic structure towards less energy-intensive sectors or toward a high a value-added products by subsidy in investment to energy efficient equipment in the electricity generation sector. Besides, the indirect effects of energy consumption and CO2 emissions from the transportation of fuel, the transmission line, and construction of power plant should not be underestimated. Regarding to a possible option for CO2 mitigation, a low growth rate scenario would provide approximately 9.4% CO2 decreasing in the electricity generation sector by 2030 when compare to 2005 year. Moreover, besides the power sector, a government of Thailand should take effective measures in the industrial sector and the transportation sector, and implement the penetration of renewable energy in order to achieve Thailand’s INDC goal.
List of Tables x
List of Figure xiv
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Research motivation 1
1.2 Research objective 2
1.3 Framework of Research 4
Chapter 2 Background and future outlook of the electricity generation in Thailand 7
2.1 The Power generation industry 7
2.2 Fossil fuel structure 7
2.3 Final energy consumption, electricity consumption and economic growth 11
2.4 State-enterprise of Thai’s power sector 13
2.5 Electricity Consumer in Thailand 14
2.6 Pollutant Emissions and environmental problem 15
2.7 Policy implementation and the role of Thailand’s INDC 18
2.7.1 Power Development Plan 19
2.7.2 Energy Efficiency Plan (EEP) 20
2.7.3 The Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP) 21
2.7.4 Thailand’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) 21
2.8 Possible Options for CO2 mitigation 22
Chapter 3 Method and Literature Reviews 29
3.1 Introduction 29
3.2 Decoupling 29
3.2.1 Literature review 30
3.2.2 OECD Decoupling 32
3.3 Decomposition Analysis 36
3.3.1 Literature review 36
3.3.2 Estimation of CO2 emissions 39
3.3.3 Divisia Index 41
3.4 Input-Output Analysis 43
3.4.1 Literature Reviews 43
3.4.2 General framework of input-output analysis 46
3.5 Linkage Effect Analysis 50
3.6 Multiplier Analysis 53
3.7 Life cycle assessment (LCA) 54
3.7.1 Input-output Life cycle assessment (IO-LCA) 60
3.7.2 Literatures reviews 62
3.7.3 Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment Calculation 64
3.7.4 Impact assessment model 66
Chapter 4 Decoupling and decomposition analysis of Thailand’s electricity generation sector 77
4.1 Introduction 77
4.2 Data Consolidation 77
4.3 Trend Analysis 78
4.3.1 Energy consumption from Thailand’s thermal power sector 78
4.3.2 CO2 emissions from Thailand’s thermal power sector 80
4.4 Decoupling index in Thailand’s thermal power sector 81
4.4.1 Decoupling of energy consumption from an economic activity 81
4.4.2 Decoupling of CO2 emissions from an economic activity 81
4.5 Decomposition analysis of Thailand’s Thermal Power Sector 84
4.6 Conclusion 90
Chapter 5 Input-Output analysis and Multiplier analysis of Thailand’s electricity generation sector 93
5.1 Introduction 93
5.2 Data Consolidation 93
5.3 Inter-industry relationships 95
5.4 Energy Multiplier 98
5.5 CO2 Multiplier 102
5.6 Emissions from major economic sectors 106
5.7 Direct and indirect of energy consumption 110
5.8 Direct and indirect of CO2 emission 112
5.9 Conclusions 115
Chapter 6 Input-output life cycle assessment of Thailand’s electricity generation sector 119
6.1 Introduction 119
6.1.1 Scope 120
6.1.2 Functional units 120
6.1.3 Data consolidation 120
6.2 Limitations 121
6.3 Assumption 122
6.4 Environmental impacts of the electricity generation sector 122
6.4.1 Environmental Impact from IMPACT 2002+ method 123
6.4.2 Environmental impact from the Eco-indicator 99 method 142
6.5 Comparison of IMPACT 2002+ and Eco indicator 99 methods 156
6.5.1 Comparison of the characterization categories 156
6.5.2 Comparison of the damage assessment 158
6.5.3 Comparison of the Normalization 159
6.5.4 Comparison of the weighting 161
6.6 Conclusion 162
Chapter 7 Conclusion and suggestion 165
7.1 Conclusion 165
7.2 Suggestion 168
Appendix 1 - Characterization effect of 10 important sectors in 2000 by IMPACT 2002+ ..190
Appendix 2 - Characterization effect of 10 important sectors in 2005 by IMPACT 2002+ 191
Appendix 3 - Characterization effect of 10 important sectors in 2010 by IMPACT 2002+ 192
Appendix 4 - Normalization of environmental damages of 10 important sectors in 2000 by IMPACT 2002+ 193
Appendix 5 - Normalization of environmental damages of 10 important sectors in 2005 by IMPACT 2002+ 194
Appendix 6 - Normalization of environmental damages of 10 important sectors in 2010 by IMPACT 2002+ 195
Appendix 7 - Characterization of 10 important sectors in 2000 by Eco-indicator 99 196
Appendix 8 - Characterization of 10 important sectors in 2005 by Eco-indicator 99 197
Appendix 9 - Characterization of 10 important sectors in 2010 by Eco-indicator 99 198
Appendix 10 - Normalization of environmental damages of 10 important sectors in 2000 by Eco-indicator 99 199
Appendix 11- Normalization of environmental damages of 10 important sectors in 2005 by Eco-indicator 99 200
Appendix 12- Normalization of environmental damages of 10 important sectors in 2010 by Eco-indicator 99 201
List of Tables
Table 3-1 Environmental pressure indicator for decoupling 35
Table 3- 2 Default Carbon dioxide emissions factors for combustion 40
Table 3-3 Structure of Input-output table 48
Table 3-4 Number of LCI results covered, main sources for characterization factors, reference substance and damage units used in IMPACT 2002+ 69
Table 3-5 Characterization damage factors of the impact categories in IMPACT 2002+
Table 3-6 Normalization factor for four damage categories in IMPACT 2002+ 71
Table 3-7 Weighting factor for four damage categories in IMPACT 2002+ 71
Table 3-8 Characterization factors of the impact categories in the Eco-indicator 99. 73
Table 3-9 Characterization damage factors of the impact categories in the Eco-indicator 99 74
Table 3-10 Normalization factor for three damage categories in the Eco-indicator 99 74
Table 3-11 Weighting factor for three damage categories in the Eco-indicator 99 75
Table 4-1 Energy consumption, CO2 emissions from Thailand’s thermal power sector and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 2000 to 2015 84
Table 4-2 Decomposition analysis of CO2 emission changes of Thailand’s electricity generation from thermal power plants from 2000 to 2015 85
Table 5-1 Sector classification 94
Table 5-2 Sectoral forward and backward linkage effects for 2000, 2005 and 2010. 96
Table 5-3 Top 10 forward and backward linkage sectors relative to the electricity generation and gas services sector for 2000, 2005 and 2010 97
Table 5-4 Inter-industry relationships of the electricity generation sector in Thailand for 2000, 2005 and 2010 98
Table 5-5 Energy consumption, monetary energy consumption factor and multiplier for 2000 99
Table 5-6 Energy consumption, monetary energy consumption factor and multiplier for 2005 100
Table 5-7 Energy consumption, monetary energy consumption factor and multiplier for 2010 101
Table 5- 8 Energy consumption, monetary energy consumption factor, multiplier and ranking of the electricity generation sector in Thailand for 2000, 2005, and 2010 102
Table 5-9 CO2 emission, monetary emission factor and multiplier for 2000. 103
Table 5-10 CO2 emission, monetary emission factor and multiplier for 2005. 104
Table 5-11 CO2 emission, monetary emission factor and multiplier for 2010. 105
Table 5-12 CO2 emissions, monetary CO2 emissions factor, CO2 multiplier and ranking of the electricity generation sector in Thailand for 2000, 2005, and 2010. 106
Table 5-13 Direct/indirect effects of energy consumption for the 19 aggregated sectors in Thailand 111
Table 5-14 Direct/indirect effects of CO2 emissions for the 19 aggregated sectors in Thailand 113
Table 6-1 Definition of 10 important sectors 123
Table 6-2 Characterization of the electricity generation sector in 2000, 2005 and 2010 years by IMPACT 2002+ 127
Table 6- 3 Characterization of the coal and lignite sector in 2000, 2005 and 2010 years by IMPACT 2002+ 128
Table 6-4 Characterization of the petroleum and natural gas extraction sector in 2000, 2005 and 2010 years by IMPACT 2002+ 129
Table 6-5 Characterization of the pipeline and gas extraction sector in 2000, 2005 and 2010 years by IMPACT 2002+ 130
Table 6-6 Environmental damages from ten sectors contributing to Thailand’s electricity generation sector in 2000, 2005, and 2010 132
Table 6-7 Environmental impact of human health damage category. 134
Table 6-8 Weighing of Thailand’s electricity generation sector. 140
Table 6-9 The percentage of direct and indirect environmental impact of Thailand’s electricity generation sector 140
Table 6-10 Characterization of the electricity generation sector in 2000, 2005 and 2010 years by Eco-indicator 99 145
Table 6-11 Characterization of the coal and lignite sector in 2000, 2005 and 2010 years by Eco-indicator 99 146
Table 6-12 Characterization of the petroleum and natural gas extraction sector in 2000, 2005 and 2010 years by Eco-indicator 99 147
Table 6-13 Characterization of the pipeline and gas distribution sector in 2000, 2005 and 2010 years by Eco-indicator 99 148
Table 6-14 Damage assessment by Eco indicator 99 150
Table 6-15 Weighing of Thailand’s electricity generation sector. 155
Table 6-16 The percentage of direct and indirect environmental impact of Thailand’s electricity generation 155
Table 6-17 Environmental impacts of the electricity generation sector from Eco-indicator 99 and IMPACT 2002+ in damage assessment in year 2010 157
Table 6-18 Normalization value and top three important sectors for each damage categories from Eco-indicator 99 and IMPACT 2002+ in Normalization for 2000 to 2010. 160
Table 6-19 Percentages of direct and indirect environmental impact of Thailand’s electricity generation sector from Eco-indicator 99 and IMPACT 2002+ 161
List of Figure
Figure 1-1 Streamline of methodology in this study. 4
Figure 1-2 Research Framework 6
Figure 2-1 Fuel consumption in Thai’s electricity generation from 2000-2015 8
Figure 2-2 Percentage share of fossil fuel in Thailand’s electricity generation sector 10
Figure 2-3 Final energy demand and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Thailand 12
Figure 2-4 Electricity consumption for Power generation in Thailand 2000-2015 13
Figure 2-5 Electricity Consumption classified by economic sector in Thailand 15
Figure 2-6 CO2 emissions from the Thai’s power sector 2000-2015 16
Figure 2-7 SO2, NOx emissions from the Thai’s power sector 2000-2015 17
Figure 2-8 Particulate matters from the Thai’s power sector 2000-2015 17
Figure 2-9 Fuel mix in electricity generation in BAU scenario 23
Figure 2-10 Fuel mix in electricity generation in medium growth rate scenario 23
Figure 2-11 Fuel mix in electricity generation in low growth rate scenario 24
Figure 2-12 Fuel mix in electricity generation for each scenarios in 2005 and 2030 24
Figure 2-13 CO2 emissions from the electricity generation sector in all scenarios 25
Figure 2-14 Total CO2 emissions from all energy sectors during 2000 to 2015 26
Figure 2-15 GHG emissions and mitigation by low carbon technologies 27
Figure 3-1 Relative and Absolute Decoupling by OECD (2002) 33
Figure 3-2 Schematic presentation of an environmental mechanism underlying the modelling of impacts and damages in Life Cycle Impact Assessment 57
Figure 3-3 Overall scheme of the IMPACT 2002+ framework, linking LCI results via the midpoint categories to damage categories 68
Figure 3-4 Impact categories and pathways covered by the Eco-indicators 99 methodology 73
Figure 4-1 Trend of energy consumption and CO2 emissions from Thai’s thermal power sector 79
Figure 4-2 Trend of CO2 emissions and economic growth from Thai’s thermal power sector. 79
Figure 4-3 Energy intensity and CO2 emissions intensity from Thai’s thermal power sector. 80
Figure 4-4 Decoupling index of energy demand and CO2 emissions from Thai’s thermal power sector 82
Figure 4-5 Fuel type share of CO2 emission from the thermal power sector. 83
Figure 4-6 Decomposition of CO2 emissions from Thai’s thermal power generation 85
Figure 5-1 CO2 emission from major economic sectors in 2000, 2005 and 2010. 108
Figure 5-2 NOx emission from major economic sectors in 2000, 2005 and 2010. 108
Figure 5-3 SO2 emission from major economic sectors in 2000, 2005 and 2010. 109
Figure 6-1 Normalized environmental damages for 2000, 2005 and 2010 133
Figure 6-2 Normalization of total environmental impacts for 2000, 2005, and 2010 138
Figure 6-3 Normalization of environmental damages from electricity generation sectors in 200, 2005 and 201 139
Figure 6- 4 Normalized environmental damages for 2000, 2005, 2010 151
Figure 6- 5 Normalization of total environmental impacts for 2000, 2005, and 2010 153
Figure 6- 6 Normalization of environmental damages from electricity generation sectors in 200, 2005 and 2010 154
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