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系統識別號 U0026-0302201603354400
論文名稱(中文) LTE eMBMS的可行性分析-以科技經濟模型探討
論文名稱(英文) Feasibility Analysis of eMBMS over LTE - through Techno-economic Model Analysis
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 電信管理研究所
系所名稱(英) Institute of Telecommunications and Management
學年度 104
學期 1
出版年 105
研究生(中文) 王柏宗
研究生(英文) Po-Tsung Wang
學號 R96021073
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
論文頁數 88頁
口試委員 指導教授-黃光渠
口試委員-陳文字
口試委員-周韻采
口試委員-黃光雄
中文關鍵字 演進型多媒體廣播群播服務  利害關係人分析  模擬分析  Over-the-top  Sponsored data 
英文關鍵字 eMBMS  stakeholder analysis  Over-the-top  Sponsored data  simulation analysis 
學科別分類
中文摘要 美國4大電信業者Verizon、AT&T、Sprint、T-Mobile,2008~2012年間全體年複合增長率為2.28%,但根據KPCBInternet Trends 2015的報告,全球行動流量從2012年增加70%、2013年增加81%和2014年增加69%,顯示雖然電信市場用戶飽和情況下,網路流量呈現爆炸性成長。影音流量佔網路流量50%以上,美國地區甚至超過70%。這指出電信用戶沒有顯著成長,但電信業者必須面對數據流量快速成長所造成的網路壅塞,尤其是影音服務所佔流量比例逐步提升,進而必須挹注更多基礎網路建設的成本。因電信業者要面對行動多媒體影音服務高數據流量的發展趨勢,LTE eMBMS (Evolved-Multimedia Broadcast Multicast Services)所提供的群播行動電視服務有助於提升頻譜效率與確保服務品質有其發展空間。
本研究探討eMBMS、MBMS、MediaFLO和DVB-H之間的關係和演進,並探討影響LTE eMBMS服務的關鍵因素。隨著行動串流影音的蓬勃發展,行動串流內容提供者如雨後春筍興起,如Hulu和Netflix。電信業者在3G服務上已提供影音串流服務,但受限於網路速度、收費模式、節目內容等因素,造成消費者使用電信業者所提供之影音串流服務意願低落,加上OTT服務日益盛行,且其後勢可期,使3G的影音串流服務發展受限。OTT的收視品質會隨著網路傳輸品質而有差異,LTE採用eMBMS支援群播和廣播業務,透過群播方式推送影音服務至特定使用者的終端,可保持一定的服務品質和服務體驗,且藉由網路資源的共享提升網路頻寬的利用率;eMBMS也支援動態調整頻寬,電信商可隨時將提供eMBMS服務的頻譜調整做為行動通訊之用,這表示電信業者提供eMBMS服務將更有彈性,可以依電信業者的需求調整。eMBMS服務可以提供更穩定的收視品質,但由於是透過廣播或群播方式提供服務,因此電信業者將損失原本透過單播收看影片的流量,以NFL為例,平均一場球賽的流量約為1.5GB,預估每位用戶一個禮拜收看一場比賽,一個月的總流量約為6GB,而這6GB將是電信商提供eMBMS服務所損失的每位用戶的單播流量,eMBMS採收取月租費的方式,不從流量計價。從中可知,當網路相當壅塞時,電信商才會推出eMBMS服務,否則將損失在單播流量中所獲得的收益。
本研究以下列四個步驟進行分析:第一,透過利害關係人分析了解eMBMS服務包含了哪些利害關係人,以及這些利害關係人與電信商之間的互動關係和影響力。第二,透過這些利害關係人的互動和角色找到建立科技經濟模型所需要的參數與變數,藉由文獻回顧與相關新聞資料佐證LTE eMBMS變數範圍。第三,估算台灣和美國的LTE行動電信營運商進行eMBMS的淨現值(NPV)。第四,依據市場反應假設三個情境,並以電信商規模、廣告與手機補貼進行模擬分析。分析結果可瞭解規模較大的電信業者適合採用有廣告和手機補貼的策略,例如,AT&T擁有1億3千萬用戶,在第三年就能獲利,第六年可達成損益平衡,因為訂閱用戶數較多,可以透過廣告獲利;規模較小的電信業者,例如中華電信擁有600萬用戶,採用手機補貼和廣告的模式,將在第九年獲利,第十四年損益平衡,本研究建議並不適合推出eMBMS服務,因為用戶數數有限,成本效益不易彰顯。然而不只規模小的電信商不宜推出eMBMS服務,規模太小的電信市場也不適合推出eMBMS服務,主要原因在於行動用戶數偏低、頻譜成本過高。
本研究並探討新科技(eMBMS)與傳統科技(地面波數位電視)在頻譜上的競爭,當eMBMS科技成熟後,LTE市場佔有率超越第三代行動通訊時,依據科技中立性原則,電信監管機關可將其納入廣播電視服務的科技選項以提升頻譜使用效率,並帶給民眾更多收視廣播電視的選項,以利日後通訊產業發展。
本研究探討新興eMBMS科技在台灣的可行性與相關變數,研究結果亦可作為電信營運商投入建置與否的參考資訊;也可進一步建議電信監管機關關注 eMBMS服務的發展,在這項科技成熟時將其納入廣播電視釋照的選項,提供民眾不同收視廣播電視的選擇加速產業升級與發展。
英文摘要 According to DIGITIMES Research’s report, mobile communication market has become mature in past few years, because the CAGR of Verizon, AT&T, Sprint, T-Mobile from 2008 to 2012 is 2.28%. Based on Internet Trends 2015 issued by KPCB, the global mobile traffic increased 70% in 2012, 81% in 2013 and 69% in 2014. It indicates that mobile telecommunication operators confront the saturated market in number of subscriber, but their mobile traffics have been increased rapidly. The video streaming services occupy over 50% of total mobile traffics and over 70% in North America. However, it would be challenges for mobile operators to deal with network congestion in peak hours for ensuring quality of service and maintaining customer loyalty. To purchase extra radio bands, install more base stations and upgrade new mobile technologies would be high cost solutions to implement, so mobile industry confronts a dilemma between OTT (over the top) services to exploit high speed transmission capabilities and network congestion of too many subscribers watching at the same content. Therefore, LTE (long-term evolution) eMBMS (Evolved-Multimedia Broadcast Multicast Services), broadcasting service over LTE network, is the right candidate to evaluate whether it can prevent its predecessors’ failed experiences from enhancing spectrum efficiency through multicasting on the one hand and reduce network congestion and churn rates on the other hand.

This research will evaluate the relationship and development of eMBMS, MBMS and DVB-H. People watch video programs through smart devices from different OTT channels including Netflix, YouTube and Hulu. From the sharing principle of mobile service, with more and more customers watch video through smart devices, the quality of network will be downgraded and congestion will be a troublesome issue to cope with. The earlier application of video streaming was provided by 3G in Taiwan, but the limitation of the service were speed, pricing and contents. OTT service is popular video watching services, but the quality is affected by network performance. LTE eMBMS, transmitted by multicasting and broadcasting, can guarantee the stable and reliable content delivery to client’s devices. Multicasting for video contents to large amount of subscribers can enhance to provide high efficient performance and make sure quality of service with minimum delay and jitter. The most important feature of eMBMS is it allows network resources to be dynamically allocated, so an LTE operator can choose to dedicate network capacity in a particular area for a particular event to spread out a certain video service, and then re-allocate that capacity to regular data traffic once the event is completed. Although traffic revenues for mobile operators would be reduced because eMBMS provides multicasting service, monthly subscription fees can be increased by stable and reliable video watching experience. Taking NFL game for example, the average data traffic of NHL game is 1.5GB and we predict that customer watch a NFL game per week and total data traffic is 6GB per month. The revenue of 6GB is lost to mobile operators and eMBMS service is charged monthly subscription fee. Therefore, network congestion is the vital factor to affect when eMBMS would be adopted by mobile operators.

This research analyzed the topic through four steps. Firstly, we adopted stakeholder analysis to figure out the relationships between these stakeholders and a mobile operator. Secondly, we built a techno-economic model through the previous stakeholder analysis and find out key success factors and spectrum cost of eMBMS over LTE. Literatures and news articles offer valuable information to enrich parameters and factors estimation. Thirdly, we used simulation analysis to calculate revenue and cost for American and Taiwanese mobile operators. Finally, we proposed three scenarios to analyze NPVs (net present values) from each scenario. According to the results, the bigger mobile operators could conduct the strategy with combination of advertisement and handset subsidy. From our simulation, AT&T has 130 million subscribers and it could make profit in the 3rd year and break-even the project in the 6th year. Because it has sufficient subscriber base and can earn extra revenues through advertisement. As for small mobile operators, like Chunghwa Telecom, has 6 million subscribers only. It could make profit in the 9th year and break-even in the 14th year. This research suggests that mobile operators with large scale like AT&T and Verizon are suitable to provide eMBMS. In addition, mobile operators with much small scale (under five million subscribers) cannot make profits from eMBMS at all, even small telecom market. The main reasons are that number of subscriber is too low and cost of spectrum is too high.

Another key point of this research is the competition between new technology (eMBMS) and traditional technology (digital terrestrial television), because eMBMS will become a platform for digital convergence. When eMBMS technology is matured, the market share of LTE will be higher than 3G. According to technological neutrality, the NRA (national regulatory authorities) could adopt eMBMS as one of broadcasting TV service technologies. This policy can increase the efficiency of spectrum utility and offer more broadcasting TV options for the public. In the long run, such kind of adoption can exploit the power and beauty of communication technology progress and enhance social welfare.

The result of this research not only analyze the feasibility of LTE eMBMS in Taiwan but it can be a reference for mobile operators who intend to provide eMBMS for OTT programs.
論文目次 Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Research purpose and Question 11
1.3 Research Flow 12
Chapter 2 Literature Review 13
2.1 Introduction of mobile video traffic 13
2.1.1 Over-the-top 13
2.1.2 Sponsored Data 16
2.1.3 eMBMS 18
2.2 Theory and Applications in Techno-economic analysis 26
2.2.1 Introduction of Techno-economic analysis 26
2.2.2 Techno-economic analysis in Telecommunication 27
Chapter 3 Research Method 31
3.1 Research Framework 31
3.2 Research Method 31
3.2.1 Data Collection 31
3.2.2 Techno-economic Model 32
Chapter 4 Stakeholder analysis and simulation analysis 37
4.1 Program 38
4.2 Stakeholder analysis 39
4.2.1 Primary stakeholder 39
4.2.2 Secondary stakeholder 40
4.3 The basic assumption of three scenario 41
4.3 The result of scenario 1 47
4.4 The result of scenario 2 58
4.5 The result of scenario 3 66
4.6 The result of three scenarios 74
4.7 Discussion about sensitive analysis and exponential growth 78
Chapter 5 Conclusion 81
5.1 Research result 81
5.2 Suggestions 81
Reference 85
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