進階搜尋


下載電子全文  
系統識別號 U0026-0207201923452600
論文名稱(中文) 以計畫需水量為基礎結合流量指標與蓄水量變化之最佳模糊化限水策略
論文名稱(英文) Demand-based optimal fuzzified hedging rules associated with variation of standardized streamflow index and storage
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 水利及海洋工程學系
系所名稱(英) Department of Hydraulics & Ocean Engineering
學年度 107
學期 2
出版年 108
研究生(中文) 蘇意雯
研究生(英文) I-Wen Su
電子信箱 edr2845e@gmail.com
學號 N86064034
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 75頁
口試委員 指導教授-蕭政宗
口試委員-張麗秋
口試委員-孫建平
中文關鍵字 水庫規線  模糊理論  標準化流量指標  蓄水量變化  優選模式  多準則決策  遺傳演算法 
英文關鍵字 Rule curves  Fuzzy theory  SSI  storage tendency  Genetic algorithm 
學科別分類
中文摘要 臺灣地區因降雨時空分布不均、河川坡陡流急,造成洪旱災害頻傳,其中又以南部地區最為頻繁,將豐水期河川豐沛的逕流貯存下來供給枯水期使用為水庫的最大功能。近年來,氣候變遷再加上水庫庫容因泥沙淤積問題而大幅下降,造成乾旱時期的缺水問題日益嚴重,因此提高現有水庫的供水效率為臺灣地區水資源管理的重要議題之一。臺灣的水庫管理單位訂定水庫營運規線(rule curve),是以明確的界線劃分數個蓄水區間表示水庫之豐枯狀態。此外,規線在豐水期較枯水期為低,以利於豐水期防洪並於枯水期防旱,然而若豐水期入流量不如預期,蓄水量仍有可能無法滿足枯水期之需求,表示傳統水庫規線無法明確代表水庫之供水能力。因此本研究以位於臺灣南部之南化水庫與甲仙攔河堰系統為研究案例,利用未來計畫需水量制定水庫營運規線,並藉由模糊理論模糊化蓄水區間的不確定性作為基礎,結合不同時間尺度之標準化流量指標(standardized streamflow index, SSI)以及水庫蓄水量變化趨勢,制定七種優選模式,並配合多準則決策之五項缺水指標(單旬最大缺水率、風險度、總缺水率、缺水事件頻率、缺水時期平均缺水量)制定其優選模式之整合目標函數,利用遺傳演算法針對七種優選模式進行計算並與現況營運比較和討論。研究結果顯示,七種優選模式皆能改善現況之供水情形,而不同時間尺度之流量指標與蓄水量變化對於水庫營運也有不同影響。但不論是流量指標或是蓄水量變化,皆以時間尺度為9旬對缺水有較大幅度改善,而以蓄水量變化趨勢輔助水庫營運成效略優於流量指標的影響。
英文摘要 Due to the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall and the rapid streamflows in southern Taiwan, floods and droughts occur frequently. Therefore, improving the water supply efficiency of reservoirs is one of the important issues for water resources management. The rule curves divide the storage of the reservoir into several zones with clear boundaries to indicate the state of the reservoir. Besides, the rule curves are lowered in flooding season due to flood prevention. If the inflow during the wet season is not as expected, the stored water may not guarantee sufficient water supply for the coming dry season which indicate the traditional rule curves cannot represent the water supply capability of the reservoir. This study chooses the Nanhua reservoir which located in southern Taiwan as an example to demonstrate the proposed methodology. This study formulates a demand-base rule curves and applies fuzzy theory to fuzzify the storage zones. Furthermore, this study considers the standardized streamflow index (SSI) and storage tendency of the reservoir with different time scales to construct water releasing rules. The optimal hedging rules are derived with five shortage indices for multi-criteria optimization. The results show that different time scale of the SSI and the storage tendency have different effects on reservoir operations. However, the three-month time scale is the best scenario among the models.
論文目次 摘要...I
誌謝...VIII
目錄...IX
表目錄...XI
圖目錄...XIII
符號表...XV
第一章 緒論...1
1-1 研究動機...1
1-2 研究目的...2
1-3 論文架構...2
第二章 文獻回顧...4
2-1 水庫規線、營運策略與限水操作...4
2-2 模糊理論...6
2-3 標準化流量指標(SSI)...7
2-4 缺水指標與多準則決策...7
第三章 研究地區與使用資料...9
3-1 系統營運概況...9
3-1-1 南化水庫...9
3-1-2 甲仙攔河堰...11
3-2 系統營運資料...11
第四章 研究方法...17
4-1 南化水庫與甲仙攔河堰系統營運模式...17
4-2 水庫規線與蓄水區間模糊化...21
4-3 標準化河川流量指標(SSI)...24
4-4 南化水庫蓄水量升降趨勢變化...28
4-5 缺水指標與多準則決策...32
4-5-1 缺水指標...32
4-5-2 多準則決策...33
4-6 優選模式...35
第五章 結果與討論...38
5-1 現況營運...38
5-2 蓄水區間模糊化之優選模式...41
5-3 結合SSI指標之優選模式...48
5-3-1 連續3旬之SSI指標(SSI3)...49
5-3-2 連續9旬之SSI指標(SSI9)...51
5-3-3 連續18旬之SSI指標(SSI18)...54
5-3-4 SSI指標不同時間尺度對於缺水之影響...57
5-4 結合蓄水量變化趨勢之優選模式...58
5-4-1 連續3旬蓄水量變化趨勢...59
5-4-2 連續9旬蓄水量變化趨勢...62
5-4-3 連續18旬蓄水量變化趨勢...65
5-4-4 蓄水量變化不同時間尺度對於缺水之影響...67
5-4-5 結合SSI指標與結合蓄水量變化趨勢之模式比較...68
第六章 結論與建議...69
6-1 結論...69
6-2 建議...70
參考文獻...71
參考文獻 1.Afsar, A., Mariño, M., Saadatpour, M., Afsar, A., Fuzzy TOPSIS multi-criteria decision analysis applied to Karun reservoirs system. Water Resour Management, 25(2), 545–563, 2011
2.Ahmadianfar, I., Adib, A., Taghian, M., Optimization of fuzzified hedging rules for multipurpose and multireservoir systems. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 21(4), 05016003, DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001329, 2016
3.Azmi, M., Araghinejad, S., Sarmadi, F., A national-scale assessment of agricultural development feasibility using multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approaches. Advances in Natural and Applied Sciences, 5(4), 379-391, 2011
4.Bayazit, M., Unal, N. E., Effects of hedging on reservoir performance. Water Resources Research, 26(4), 713-719, 1990
5.Chang, F. J., Hui, S. C., Chen, Y. C., Reservoir operation using grey fuzzy stochastic dynamic programming. Hydrological Processess, 16(12), 2395- 2408, 2002
6.Chen, L., McPhee, J., Yeh, W. W. G., A diversified multiobjective GA for optimizing reservoir rule curves. Advances in Water Resources, 30(5), 1082-1093, 2007
7.Draper, A. J., Lund, J. R., Optimal hedging and carryover storage value. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 130(1), 83-87, 2004
8.Fang, H. B., Hu, T. S., Zeng, X., Wu, F. Y., Simulation-optimization model of reservoir operation based on target storage curves. Water Science and Engineering, 7(4), 433-445, 2014
9.Guo, X. N., Hu, T. S., Zeng, X., Li, X. J., Extension of parametric rule with the hedging rule for managing multireservoir system during droughts. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 139(2), 139-148, 2013
10.Hashimato, T., Stedinger, J. R., Loucks, D. P., Reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability criteria for water resource system performance evaluation. Water Resources Research, 18(1), 14-20, 1982
11.Huang, C. L., Yoon, K., Multiple Attribute Decision Making: Methods and Applications. Spring-Verlag, New York, 1981
12.Ji, Y., Lei, X. H., Cai, S. Y., Wang, X., Hedging rules for water supply reservoir based on the model of simulation and optimization. Water, 8(6), UNSP 249, DOI:10.3390/w8060249, 2016
13.Kamodkar, R. U., Redulwar, D. G., Optimal multiobjective reservoir operation with fuzzy decision variables and resources: A compromise approach. Journal of Hydro-environment Research, 8(4), 428-440, 2014
14.Kumar, K., Kasthurirengan, S., Generalized linear two-point hedging rule for water supply reservoir operation. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 144(9), 04018051, DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000964, 2018
15.Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Moran-Tejeda, E., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Lopez-Moreno, J. I., Streamflow droughts in the Iberian Peninsula between 1945 and 2005: spatial and temporal patterns. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17(1), 119-134, 2013
16.McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., Kleist, J., The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 17-22, 1993
17.Moeini, R., Afshar, A., Afshar, M. H., Fuzzy rule-based model for hydropower reservoirs operation. Electrical Power and Energy Systems, 33(2), 171-178,2011
18.Moy, W. S., Cohon, J. L., ReVelle, C. S., A programming model for analysis of the reliability, resilience and vulnerability of a water supply reservoir. Water Resources Research, 22(4), 489-498, 1986
19.Najl, A. A., Haghighi, A., Samani, H. M. V., Simultaneous optimization of operating rules and rule curves for multireservoir systems using a self-adaptive simulation-GA model. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 142(10), 04016041, DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000688, 2016
20.Ngoc, T. A., Hiramatsu, K., Harada, M., Optimizing the rule curves of multi-use reservoir operation using a genetic algorithm with a penalty strategy. Paddy and Water Environment, 12(1), 125-137, 2014
21.Rittima, A., Hedging policy for reservoir system operation: a case study of Mun Bon and Lam Chae reservoirs. Kasetsart Journal:Natural Science, 43(4), 833-842, 2009
22.Safavi, H. R., Chakraei, I., Kabiri-Samani, A., Golmohammadi, M. H., Optimal reservoir operation based on conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater using neuro-fuzzy systems. Water Resources Management, 27(12), 4259-4275, 2013
23.Shiau, J. T., Water release policy effects on the shortage characteristics for the Shihmen reservoir system during droughts. Water Resources Management, 17(6), 463-480, 2003
24.Shiau, J. T., Lee, H. C., Derivation of optimal hedging rules for a water-supply reservoir through compromise programming. Water Resources Management, 19(2), 111-132, 2005
25.Solakova, T., Michele, C. D., Vezzoli, R., Comparison between parametric and nonparametric approaches for the calculation of two drought indices: SPI and SSI. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19(9), 04014010, DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000942, 2014
26.Taghian, M., Rosbjerg, D., Haghighi, A., Madsen, H., Optimization of conventional rule curves coupled with hedging rules for reservoir operation. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 140(5), 693-698, 2014
27.Telesca, L., Lovallo, M., Lopez-Moreno, I., Vicente-Serrano, S., Investigation of scaling properties in monthly streamflow and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) time series in the Ebro basin (Spain). Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 391(4), 1662-1678, 2012
28.Tu, M. Y., Hsu, N. S., Yeh, W. W. G., Optimization of reservoir management and operation with hedging rules. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 129(2), 86-97, 2003
29.Tu, M. Y., Hsu, N. S., Tsai, F. T. C., Yeh, W. W. G., Optimization of hedging rules for reservoir operations. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 134(1), 3-13, 2008
30.Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Lopez-Moreno, J.I., Begueria, S., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Azorin-Molina, C., Moran-Tejeda, E., Accurate computation of a streamflow drought index. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(2), 318-332, 2012
31.You, J. Y., Cai, X. M., Hedging rule for reservoir operations:1. A theoretical analysis. Water Resources Research,44(1), W01415, DOI:10.1029/2006WR005481, 2008a
32.You, J. Y., Cai, X. M., Hedging rule for reservoir operations: 2. A numerical model. Water Resources Research, 44(1), W01416, DOI:10.1029/2006WR005482, 2008b
33.Zadeh, L. A., Fuzzy sets. Information and control, 8(3), 338-353, 1965
34.陳莉、張斐章,以物件為導向之遺傳演算法優選水庫運用規線之研究,農業工程研討會,第541-555頁,1995
35.陳莉,蔡宗志,江柏寬,以模糊理論結合遺傳演算法應用於水庫防洪操作之最佳化研究,農業工程學報,第48卷,第1期,第82-94頁,2002
36.陳正炎、姚嘉耀、謝馥揚、廖苑雅,運用遺傳演算法推求水庫操作之研究---以明德水庫為例,中華水土保持學報,第37卷,第2期,第173-184頁,2006
37.張斐章、許榮哲,灰色模糊動態規劃於水庫即時操作之應用,臺灣水利,第47卷,第1期,第44-53頁,1999
38.鄭皆達、陳裕仁,模擬法與遺傳演算法應用於明德水庫操作規線之研究,水土保持學報,第38卷,第2期,第129-140頁,2006
39.臺灣自來水股份有限公司,臺灣自來水事業統計年報,2017
40.經濟部水利署,南化水庫運用要點,2011
41.經濟部水利署,甲仙攔河堰水庫運用要點,2011
42.經濟部水利署水利規劃試驗所,烏山嶺第2隧道配合曾文越引計畫供水策略研究,2009
43.經濟部水利署水利規劃試驗所,臺南大湖水資源規劃檢討,2012
44.經濟部水利署水利規劃試驗所,曾文南化水庫聯通管輸水工程可行性分析,2013
45.經濟部水利署水利規劃試驗所,臺南大湖水資源開發調查試驗及推動策略研析,2014
46.經濟部水利署南區水資源局,曾文水庫越域引水工程計畫-輸水工程可行性規劃成果檢討及設計-水源運用方式檢討報告,2006
論文全文使用權限
  • 同意授權校內瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,於2019-07-18起公開。
  • 同意授權校外瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,於2019-07-18起公開。


  • 如您有疑問,請聯絡圖書館
    聯絡電話:(06)2757575#65773
    聯絡E-mail:etds@email.ncku.edu.tw