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系統識別號 U0026-0108201310361000
論文名稱(中文) 廣域系統水資源設施綜合開發之最佳排程
論文名稱(英文) Optimal Scheduling of Regional Water Resources Development of Conventional and Redundant Facilites
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 水利及海洋工程學系碩博士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Hydraulics & Ocean Engineering
學年度 101
學期 2
出版年 102
研究生(中文) 李皓志
研究生(英文) Hao-Chih Lee
學號 n88931017
學位類別 博士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 150頁
口試委員 指導教授-周乃昉
召集委員-徐年盛
口試委員-吳瑞賢
口試委員-張良正
口試委員-葉昭憲
中文關鍵字 水資源開發  排程  備援設施  動態規劃  網流模式 
英文關鍵字 Water resources development  project scheduling  redundant water resources facilities  binary dynamic programming  network flow programming 
學科別分類
中文摘要   水資源開發除須開發常態用水設施達成穩定供水目標外,還需開發備援水源設施因應短期集中缺水的緊急情況,例如暴雨後水庫蓄水與河水濁度快速增高、水源設施故障等造成短期間常態用水設施無法足量供水至局部地區,因此規劃中長程水資源開發綱領計畫時,應同時考量常態用水設施與備援水源設施方得以確保穩定供水。依此,本研究發展一綜合開發常態用水設施與備援水源設施之排程分析方法,整併水源運用模擬模式與開發排程優選模式以求解上述兩類多個水源設施開發之排程競合問題。該分析以最小總開發成本為目標,並於滿足常態用水需求成長與高濁度期間穩定供水等要求下,求得廣域系統之最佳開發策略,以供研擬水資源開發綱領計畫。
  本研究建立的開發排程優選模式採用動態規劃法分析最經濟的開發排程,分析方案可採一次開發或分階段開發,以所有獨立方案產生之開發方案組合為狀態變數,開發方案開始供水後之有效服務年期可短於排程期程。每一階段可行狀態之供水能力必須大於需求水量。由於新舊水源設施構成之供水系統已為跨流域的廣域水源聯合運用系統,本研究採用一通用性廣域水資源運用模擬模式,於不簡化系統配置、考慮長期設施淤積情況及合理考量高濁度期間水庫蓄水與川流水限制系統可供水量下,依照既有水權、水庫運用規線、標的間用水協議及其他水源分配原則,模擬系統供水能力。本法以各階段可行開發方案的總開發成本最小現值求得最經濟開發策略,若開發方案經濟壽命超過排程期程,其總開發成本現值僅計入該設施開始供水至排程分析期程終了期間的成本年值。此外,本研究檢討應用通用性廣域水資源運用模擬模式計算系統供水能力及以動態規劃法篩選廣域水資源開發策略之計算效率。
  本研究以台灣北部新店溪與大漢溪水系整體開發規劃為例,應用所建立之方法求解該系統開發常態用水設施與備援水源設施二類方案以因應成長需求水量及確保系統可在高濁度期間穩定供水之最經濟綜合開發排程策略。本研究分析水源設施考慮淤積及高台水庫分階段開發、水源設施考慮淤積及高台水庫一次開發、水源設施不考慮淤積及高台水庫分階段開發等三種情境下之最經濟綜合開發排程策略,可得知當高台水庫可分階段開發時,其綜合開發策略較經濟;當考慮設施有效庫容逐年淤積時,並未影響開發策略所選定之開發方案,僅使但各方案開發完成開始供水之時間提前。
英文摘要 The regional water resources planning contains a variety of proposed projects.
An optimal development strategy of a regional water supply system should include the conventional facilites to supply enough water and the redundant facilites to supply stable water. This research imbedded a combined regional simulation-optimization model for evaluating system yield in binary dynamic programming analysis as a scheduling model to determine the optimal scheduling strategy of regional water resources development of conventional and redundant facilites.
Precisely estimating the system yield could be difficult. Incorrectly measured system yield will cause the optimal scheduling strategy to potentially not be correctly screened. To achieve a complete scheduling analysis, this research investigated: (1) applying a simulation-optimization model to effectively and efficiently determine the precise system yields of many different combinations of proposed projects while meeting design criteria of acceptable shortage; (2) applying a settling model to improve estimation of treated water supply by accounting for the restrictions that turbidity imposes on treatment of raw water; (3) solving a non-pure sequencing problem with a dynamic programming based scheduling model since some projects may not be necessarily developed, or even no feasible combination of proposed projects can meet the demand; (4)clarifying the amortized construction cost to be accounted in economic analysis if the economic life of a project exceeds the planning horizon. In addition, the computation efficiencies of scheduling analysis and system yield analysis, which are significantly improved with dynamic programming and simulation-optimization model respectively, are discussed in this research.
This study devised the master plan of the Daihan river system in northern Taiwan as an example. The scheduling strategy of minimum developing cost in the studied planning horizon was precisely determined.
論文目次 摘要 I
Abstract III
誌謝 V
目錄 VII
表目錄 XI
圖目錄 XIII
符號表 XV
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 問題背景 1
1.2 研究目的 3
1.3 論文組織架構 4
第二章 文獻回顧 7
2.1 水資源開發方案排程分析 7
2.2 備援設施規劃 14
第三章 廣域系統開發排程關鍵課題與分析 17
3.1 開發排程之關鍵課題 17
3.1.1 廣域系統常態用水供水能力之完整模擬 17
3.1.2 高濁度情境的水源運用模擬 19
3.1.3 水源運用計算效率 19
3.1.4 常態設施與備援設施之競合 20
3.1.5 開發方案的總開發成本計算原則 20
3.1.6 應用動態規劃排程之計算時效 21
3.2 開發排程之分析架構 22
第四章 廣域水資源系統之最佳排程分析 27
4.1 水源運用模擬 27
4.1.1 水源運用模擬方法檢討 27
4.1.2 廣域水資源運用最適模擬模式 33
4.1.3 常態用水之水源運用 39
4.1.4 高濁度情境之水源運用 45
4.2 水庫有效庫容推估 48
4.3 應用動態規劃求解最佳開發策略 50
第五章 排程分析計算效率 63
5.1 廣域系統水源運用模擬之計算效率 63
5.2 最佳開發策略篩選之計算效率 64
5.3 整體計算時效 66
第六章 實例分析-以新店溪與大漢溪系統為例 67
6.1 水資源系統概要 67
6.2 擬議開發方案 77
6.3 開發排程分析條件與情境 86
6.3.1 排程分析條件 87
6.3.2 模擬開發方案組合水源運用分析條件 87
6.3.3 排程分析情境 96
6.4 開發方案組合之供水情勢模擬結果 99
6.5 最佳開發策略分析結果 106
第七章 結論建議 115
7.1 結論 115
7.2 建議 118
參考文獻 121
附錄一 擬議開發方案組合在規劃期程中各年供需情勢模擬結果 133
附錄二 廣域系統水源運用模擬之水量分配優先順序設定示範案例 141
自述 149
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