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系統識別號 U0026-0102201309042300
論文名稱(中文) 安平水鳥濕地公園生態旅遊價值之評估
論文名稱(英文) Valuing Ecotourism in the Anping Wetland Park
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 海洋科技與事務研究所
系所名稱(英) Institute of Ocean Technology and Marine Affairs
學年度 101
學期 1
出版年 102
研究生(中文) 林千琪
研究生(英文) Chien-Chi Lin
學號 NA8971013
學位類別 博士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 155頁
口試委員 口試委員-何東波
口試委員-吳森琪
口試委員-李明安
口試委員-陳璋玲
指導教授-莊士賢
中文關鍵字 濕地  生態旅遊  模糊德爾菲法  模糊層級分析法  聯合分析法  系統動力學  視覺評估法 
英文關鍵字 wetland  ecotourism  Fuzzy Delphi Method  Fuzzy AHP  Conjoint Analysis  visual approach  System Dynamics 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本研究提出以「系統動力學」建構生態旅遊之價值評估模型,並以「安平水鳥濕地公園」為研究區域,評估其生態旅遊價值長時間發展之動態變化。本研究建構之系統動力模型包含三大主要部分:第一部分為透過模糊德爾菲法及模糊層級分析法決定本研究區域遊客最重視之屬性。第二部分為利用聯合分析法建立上述屬性與遊客願付金額之數學關係式。第三部分為結合第一及第二部分之研究結果,建立本研究區域生態旅遊價值評估之系統動力模型,並透過視覺評估法分析遊客的擁擠感受與可接受度之關係,藉以推估本研究區域之社會遊憩承載力,作為模型中一項重要變數。
研究結果發現在本研究提出之系統動力模型中,遊客人數與擁擠感受兩者之間形成一個關鍵之反饋迴路,遊客擁擠感受會隨遊客人數增加而提高,當擁擠感受超過遊客可以接受之程度後,不但會使遊客前來旅遊的意願減低,造成遊客增加量開始趨緩,另一方面也會使遊客的願付金額逐漸降低,因此即使遊客人數隨著時間增加仍持續成長到一穩定的數量,濕地生態旅遊價值反而更低。本研究最後透過情境分析提出持續提升本研究區域生態旅遊價值之數個方案。
英文摘要 This study proposed a numerical model for valuing the long-term ecotourism development of Anping Coastal Wetland Park based on System Dynamics. The construction of system dynamics model in this study consists of three parts:the first includes the determination of the attributes most important to visitors through the Fuzzy Delphi Method and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP); the second covers the establishment of the mathematical relations of the abovementioned attributes and visitors’ willingness to pay through Conjoint Analysis; the third contains the research results of the first and second parts in order to establish the System Dynamics model for valuing ecotourism in the research region. Additionally, through a visual approach, the relationship between the visitors’ crowding perception and acceptability was analyzed in order to estimate the social recreational carrying capacity.
The results show that based on the system dynamics model, the number of visitors and the visitors’ crowding perception form a crucial feedback loop. The visitors’ crowding perception increase as the number of visitors increase. When the visitors’ crowding perception exceeded the acceptability, visitors’ willingness to pay decreased. Hence, even though the number of visitors increased with time and continued to grow to a stable number, the value of the wetland ecotourism became even lower. Finally, through scenario analysis, ideal policy for enhancing the value of ecotourism in the research region were proposed.
論文目次 摘要 i
Abstract ii
目錄 iv
圖目錄 viii
表目錄 x
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景 1
1.2 研究動機 2
1.3 研究目的 4
1.4 研究區域 5
1.5 研究流程 6
1.6 論文架構 8
第二章 文獻回顧 10
2.1 濕地 10
2.1.1 濕地定義 10
2.1.2 濕地類型 12
2.1.3 台灣濕地之類型 15
2.1.4 濕地的生態系統服務 17
2.1.5 濕地生態系統服務價值與綠色國民所得帳 22
2.2 濕地生態旅遊 27
2.2.1 永續發展 27
2.2.2 生態旅遊 29
2.3 評估濕地生態旅遊價值之研究 35
2.3.1 旅遊成本法相關文獻 36
2.3.2 條件評估法相關文獻 36
2.3.3 聯合分析法相關文獻 37
2.4 應用系統動力學於自然資源管理及其與旅遊之研究 39
第三章 研究方法 41
3.1 模糊德爾菲法 41
3.1.1 模糊理論 41
3.1.2 問卷調查與模糊理論之關係 42
3.1.3 模糊德爾菲法操作步驟 42
3.1.4 模糊德爾菲法問卷設計 44
3.2 模糊層級分析法 45
3.3 聯合分析法 50
3.4 系統動力學 52
3.4.1 系統動力學基本元件 53
3.4.2 系統動力學基本迴路 54
3.4.3 系統動力模型建模之基本步驟 55
第四章 遊客重視屬性之篩選 57
4.1 第一階段:遊客重視屬性之蒐集 57
4.2 第二階段:應用模糊德爾菲法進行屬性之篩選 61
4.3 第三階段:應用模糊層級分析法分析屬性之權重 62
第五章 遊客重視屬性與願付金額之關係分析 66
5.1 聯合分析法之問卷設計 66
5.1.1屬性與水準之設定 66
5.1.2 問卷設計與內容 68
5.1.3 樣本數決定 71
5.1.4 前測 72
5.2 聯合分析之結果 72
5.2.1 受訪者基本資料分析 72
5.2.2 總成分效用值與屬性之關係 75
5.3 願付金額與總成分效用值之關係 76
5.3.1 假設AWTP與U為線性關係 77
5.3.2 假設AWTP與U為非線性關係 77
5.4 不同遊客特性之願付金額與總成分效用值的關係 78
5.4.1 不同社經背景之受訪遊客其願付金額比較 78
5.4.2 有無參加過濕地解說活動之受訪者其願付金額比較 79
5.4.3 受訪者願付金額差異之分析 80
第六章 系統動力模型 82
6.1 整體因果回饋圖與系統動力模型 82
6.2 遊客重視屬性與願付金額之關係 85
6.3 遊客人數、可視區域人數、與擁擠感受之關係 86
6.3.1 擁擠感受程度評估之方法 87
6.3.2 問卷結果 88
6.3.3 遊客人數與可視區域人數之關係 91
6. 4 遊客人數初始值與遊客增加率與之推估 92
6.4.1遊客人數初始值 92
6.4.1遊客增加率推估 92
6. 5 擁擠感受與遊客減少率之關係 94
第七章 模擬結果與討論 97
7.1 系統效度檢驗 97
7.1.1 單純結構檢驗 98
7.1.2 結構行為檢驗 98
7.2 基本分析 101
7.3 情境分析 102
7.3.1 方案一 103
7.3.2 方案二 105
7.3.3 方案三 107
7.3.4 方案四 108
7.3.5 方案五 109
7.3.6 綜合比較 110
7.4 小結 113
第八章 結論與建議 115
8.1 學術上的涵義 115
8.2 管理實務上的涵義 116
8.3 研究限制及未來研究方向 117
參考文獻 119
附件一 模糊德爾菲法問卷 138
附件二 模糊層級分析法問卷 140
附件三 聯合分析法問卷 143
附件四 擁擠感受程度問卷 147
附件五 本研究系統動力模型之數值模式 150
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